PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Fri, 17 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTCScheduled

Chicago Fire

vsPre-match analysis

Vancouver Whitecaps

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Vancouver Whitecaps's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Chicago Fire's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness54 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Vancouver Whitecaps's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vancouver Whitecaps's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.43 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Chicago Fire have a visible home split

moderate

Chicago Fire's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots17.4 shots/match14.8 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Vancouver Whitecaps show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Vancouver Whitecaps's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match17.4 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against11.9 shots/match8.21 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chicago Fire71.7
Vancouver Whitecaps78.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chicago Fire77.2
Vancouver Whitecaps96.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chicago Fire70
Vancouver Whitecaps96.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chicago Fire68.3
Vancouver Whitecaps95
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chicago Fire54.1
Vancouver Whitecaps81.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 64%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chicago Fire33.3
Vancouver Whitecaps73.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chicago Fire65
Vancouver Whitecaps91.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricChicago FireVancouver Whitecaps
Goals scored2 goals/match5 obs.1.8 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1.6 goals/match5 obs.1.4 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.96 xG/match5 obs.1.78 xG/match5 obs.
Shots17.6 shots/match5 obs.16.2 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target6.4 shots/match5 obs.6.4 shots/match5 obs.
Possession54.6%5 obs.55.6%5 obs.
Corners6 corners/match5 obs.3.8 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls11 fouls/match5 obs.14.4 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricChicago FireVancouver Whitecaps
Goals scored2.2 goals/match10 obs.2 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.2 goals/match10 obs.1.1 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals2.03 xG/match10 obs.2.29 xG/match10 obs.
Shots16.2 shots/match10 obs.18.5 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target5.4 shots/match10 obs.7.1 shots/match10 obs.
Possession52.7%10 obs.53.7%10 obs.
Corners4.3 corners/match10 obs.5.5 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls12.5 fouls/match10 obs.15.3 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
MetricChicago FireVancouver Whitecaps
Goals scored1.93 goals/match14 obs.2.43 goals/match14 obs.
Goals allowed1.14 goals/match14 obs.0.86 goals/match14 obs.
Expected goals2.02 xG/match11 obs.2.45 xG/match11 obs.
Shots14.8 shots/match14 obs.17.4 shots/match14 obs.
Shots on target5.21 shots/match14 obs.6.86 shots/match14 obs.
Possession53.1%14 obs.54.4%14 obs.
Corners4.57 corners/match14 obs.5.5 corners/match14 obs.
Cards2.25 cards/match4 obs.2.8 cards/match5 obs.
Fouls12.8 fouls/match14 obs.15.6 fouls/match14 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 6 matches
MetricChicago FireVancouver Whitecaps
Goals scored2 goals/match8 obs.2.17 goals/match6 obs.
Goals allowed1.13 goals/match8 obs.1.33 goals/match6 obs.
Expected goals2.07 xG/match7 obs.1.78 xG/match5 obs.
Shots17.4 shots/match8 obs.16.2 shots/match6 obs.
Shots on target5.63 shots/match8 obs.6.67 shots/match6 obs.
Possession54.8%8 obs.55.7%6 obs.
Corners5.25 corners/match8 obs.4.33 corners/match6 obs.
Cards—2 obs.3.67 cards/match3 obs.
Fouls12.6 fouls/match8 obs.14.2 fouls/match6 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.93 goals/match75th2.43 goals/match95th1.57 goals/match14 / 14
Goals allowedseason1.14 goals/match18th0.86 goals/match8th1.57 goals/match14 / 14
Expected goalsseason2.02 xG/match92th2.45 xG/match98th1.46 xG/match11 / 11
Expected goals allowedseason1.33 xG/match42th0.92 xG/match2th1.38 xG/match11 / 11
Shotsseason14.8 shots/match85th17.4 shots/match98th13.1 shots/match14 / 14
Shots allowedseason11.9 shots/match35th8.21 shots/match2th12.3 shots/match14 / 14
Shots on targetseason5.21 shots/match72th6.86 shots/match95th4.66 shots/match14 / 14
Shots on target allowedseason4.36 shots/match37th2.79 shots/match2th4.53 shots/match14 / 14
Possessionseason53.1%72th54.4%78th49.4%14 / 14
Cornersseason4.57 corners/match33th5.5 corners/match73th4.73 corners/match14 / 14
Corners allowedseason5.71 corners/match75th3.43 corners/match12th4.93 corners/match14 / 14
Cardsseason2.25 cards/match38th2.8 cards/match65th2.45 cards/match4 / 5
Foulsseason12.8 fouls/match70th15.6 fouls/match98th12.1 fouls/match14 / 14
Clean-sheet frequencyseason43%93th36%85th20%14 / 14
Scoring frequencyseason93%90th86%70th79%14 / 14

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures54 days—54 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures0 matches—0 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
TeamsChicago FireVancouver Whitecaps
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 17 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v3