PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Thu, 16 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTCScheduled

CF Montreal

vsPre-match analysis

Toronto FC

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: CF Montreal's last-five shots average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness54 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

CF Montreal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

CF Montreal's last-five shots average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots18.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

CF Montreal41.7
Toronto FC35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

CF Montreal52.2
Toronto FC40.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

CF Montreal28.3
Toronto FC46.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

CF Montreal58.3
Toronto FC35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

CF Montreal63.4
Toronto FC43.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 64%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

CF Montreal55
Toronto FC73.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

CF Montreal62.5
Toronto FC52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricCF MontrealToronto FC
Goals scored1.8 goals/match5 obs.1.2 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed2.2 goals/match5 obs.2.4 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.77 xG/match5 obs.0.99 xG/match5 obs.
Shots18.6 shots/match5 obs.11 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target6 shots/match5 obs.3.2 shots/match5 obs.
Possession51.4%5 obs.48.2%5 obs.
Corners7.6 corners/match5 obs.5.2 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—0 obs.
Fouls12.6 fouls/match5 obs.12.2 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricCF MontrealToronto FC
Goals scored1.8 goals/match10 obs.1.8 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed2.1 goals/match10 obs.2.2 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.68 xG/match10 obs.1.25 xG/match10 obs.
Shots15.2 shots/match10 obs.12.3 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target5.4 shots/match10 obs.4.5 shots/match10 obs.
Possession49.3%10 obs.49.8%10 obs.
Corners5.2 corners/match10 obs.5.7 corners/match10 obs.
Cards3 cards/match3 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls14.8 fouls/match10 obs.13 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
MetricCF MontrealToronto FC
Goals scored1.57 goals/match14 obs.1.57 goals/match14 obs.
Goals allowed2.21 goals/match14 obs.2.07 goals/match14 obs.
Expected goals1.6 xG/match11 obs.1.18 xG/match12 obs.
Shots13.3 shots/match14 obs.11.6 shots/match14 obs.
Shots on target4.71 shots/match14 obs.4.57 shots/match14 obs.
Possession48.4%14 obs.47.7%14 obs.
Corners5.07 corners/match14 obs.5.5 corners/match14 obs.
Cards2.33 cards/match6 obs.2 cards/match4 obs.
Fouls14.1 fouls/match14 obs.12.6 fouls/match14 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 5 matches
MetricCF MontrealToronto FC
Goals scored1.67 goals/match6 obs.1 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1.17 goals/match6 obs.2.2 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.61 xG/match6 obs.0.97 xG/match3 obs.
Shots13.8 shots/match6 obs.10 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target5.17 shots/match6 obs.3.8 shots/match5 obs.
Possession45.5%6 obs.48%5 obs.
Corners6.5 corners/match6 obs.4.4 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls15.2 fouls/match6 obs.12.4 fouls/match5 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.57 goals/match47th1.57 goals/match47th1.57 goals/match14 / 14
Goals allowedseason2.21 goals/match88th2.07 goals/match82th1.57 goals/match14 / 14
Expected goalsseason1.6 xG/match72th1.18 xG/match18th1.46 xG/match11 / 12
Expected goals allowedseason1.38 xG/match52th1.16 xG/match8th1.38 xG/match11 / 12
Shotsseason13.3 shots/match58th11.6 shots/match33th13.1 shots/match14 / 14
Shots allowedseason12.4 shots/match55th11.5 shots/match25th12.3 shots/match14 / 14
Shots on targetseason4.71 shots/match52th4.57 shots/match42th4.66 shots/match14 / 14
Shots on target allowedseason5.43 shots/match72th4.64 shots/match55th4.53 shots/match14 / 14
Possessionseason48.4%42th47.7%35th49.4%14 / 14
Cornersseason5.07 corners/match55th5.5 corners/match73th4.73 corners/match14 / 14
Corners allowedseason4.64 corners/match38th5.64 corners/match72th4.93 corners/match14 / 14
Cardsseason2.33 cards/match42th2 cards/match25th2.45 cards/match6 / 4
Foulsseason14.1 fouls/match85th12.6 fouls/match62th12.1 fouls/match14 / 14
Clean-sheet frequencyseason21%60th7%15th20%14 / 14
Scoring frequencyseason71%23th93%90th79%14 / 14

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures54 days—54 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures0 matches—0 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
TeamsCF MontrealToronto FC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 16 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v3