Major League Soccer · 2026Wed, 22 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTCFull timeGillette StadiumFull-time recap
00Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNew England RevolutionToronto FC
Shots11 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match1 shots/match
Expected goals1.04 xG/match1.41 xG/match
Possession64%36%
Corners7 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match13 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: New England Revolution's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: New England Revolution's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

New England Revolution's recent record differs from the season

moderate

New England Revolution's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/matchGoals forLast 5 · Season1.47 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.47 goals/match1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

New England Revolution show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

New England Revolution's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.1 shots/matchShotsNew England Revolution · Toronto FC11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNew England RevolutionToronto FCBaseline
Shots10.1 shots/match11.5 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match11.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

New England Revolution favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Toronto FC in 6 · 4 too close

1.47 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/161.38 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/161.81 goals/match
1.19 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/141.14 xG/match
1.41 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/141.14 xG/match
10.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/1611.5 shots/match
13.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/1611.6 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/164.06 shots/match
5.27 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/164.44 shots/match
50.2%Possessionseason · 15/1647.1%
3.87 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/165.56 corners/match
5.6 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/165.94 corners/match
3 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/42 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1612.4 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/1619%
73%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1681%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

New England Revolution51.7
Toronto FC28.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

New England Revolution17.2
Toronto FC25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

New England Revolution49.4
Toronto FC56.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

New England Revolution15
Toronto FC31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

New England Revolution56.7
Toronto FC43.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

New England Revolution11.7
Toronto FC78.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

New England Revolution12.5
Toronto FC45.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
0.97 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.01 xG/match
10.6 shots/matchShots5/511.2 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/52.6 shots/match
57.2%Possession5/545.6%
6.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
Cards1/0
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.3 goals/match
0.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
1.1 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.17 xG/match
11.1 shots/matchShots10/1011.5 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target10/103.4 shots/match
53%Possession10/1048.6%
4.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
Cards1/1
9.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 16 matches
1.47 goals/matchGoals scored15/161.38 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed15/161.81 goals/match
1.19 xG/matchExpected goals13/141.14 xG/match
10.1 shots/matchShots15/1611.5 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target15/164.06 shots/match
50.2%Possession15/1647.1%
3.87 corners/matchCorners15/165.56 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls15/1612.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 7 matches
1.89 goals/matchGoals scored9/70.71 goals/match
0.78 goals/matchGoals allowed9/71.57 goals/match
1.21 xG/matchExpected goals9/50.95 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots9/710.1 shots/match
4.11 shots/matchShots on target9/72.86 shots/match
52.9%Possession9/746.6%
4.44 corners/matchCorners9/74.86 corners/match
Cards1/2
10.7 fouls/matchFouls9/711.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

60 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 23 Jul 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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