Major League Soccer · 2026Thu, 23 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTCFull timeGeodis ParkFull-time recap

Nashville SC

DWWWW

1–0Full-time recap

CF Montreal

WDLDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nashville SC	CF Montreal
Shots	10 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	1 shots/match	2 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.7 xG/match▲	0.66 xG/match
Possession	63%	37%
Corners	3 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: CF Montreal's last-five shots average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

CF Montreal's recent record differs from the season

weak

CF Montreal's last-five shots average is above their season average.

16 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	16 shots/match	12.9 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nashville SC favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · CF Montreal in 2 · 3 too close

2.06 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.38 goals/match

0.69 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/162 goals/match

1.18 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/13▲1.47 xG/match

1.18 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 13/131.33 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲12.9 shots/match

10.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1612 shots/match

4.94 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/164.44 shots/match

3.31 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/164.81 shots/match

54.6%Possessionseason · 16/1647.8%

4.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/165.13 corners/match

4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/164.44 corners/match

2 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/62.33 cards/match

11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1613.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1625%

81%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1663%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nashville SC78.3

CF Montreal38.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nashville SC58.3

CF Montreal36.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nashville SC93.9

CF Montreal40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nashville SC18.3

CF Montreal55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nashville SC33.4

CF Montreal63.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nashville SC28.3

CF Montreal58.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nashville SC40

CF Montreal55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

0.83 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.49 xG/match

8.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲16 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match

51.4%Possession5/549%

4.6 corners/matchCorners5/57.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match

1.03 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.53 xG/match

10.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.7 shots/match

4.8 shots/matchShots on target10/104.9 shots/match

54.7%Possession10/1046.2%

4.9 corners/matchCorners10/105.6 corners/match

—Cards1/2—

10.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches

2.06 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.38 goals/match

0.69 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/162 goals/match

1.18 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲1.47 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShots16/16▲12.9 shots/match

4.94 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.44 shots/match

54.6%Possession16/1647.8%

4.44 corners/matchCorners16/165.13 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards4/62.33 cards/match

11.6 fouls/matchFouls16/1613.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches

2.78 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.33 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92.78 goals/match

1.5 xG/matchExpected goals7/61.43 xG/match

12.7 shots/matchShots9/912.2 shots/match

5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94.11 shots/match

57.4%Possession9/949.1%

4.78 corners/matchCorners9/93.78 corners/match

1.33 cards/matchCards3/51.8 cards/match

11.4 fouls/matchFouls9/913.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.02 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.04 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 23 Jul 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

CF Montreal's recent record differs from the season

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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