PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Geodis Park

Nashville SC 1–0 CF Montréal · Major League Soccer

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Nashville SC won 1–0.

Shots
107
Shots on target
12
Expected goals
1.70.66
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nashville SC beat CF Montréal 1–0. Recorded in this match (Nashville SC – CF Montréal): shots 10–7, shots on target 1–2, expected goals 1.7–0.66, possession 63%–37%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

CF Montréal's recent record differs from the season

weak

CF Montréal's last-five shots average is above their season average.

16 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots16 shots/match12.9 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots7 shotsNashville SC 10 shots, CF Montréal 7 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot2 shotsNashville SC 1 shot, CF Montréal 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.7 xG0.66 xGNashville SC 1.7 xG, CF Montréal 0.66 xG
  • Possession63%37%Nashville SC 63%, CF Montréal 37%
  • Corners3 corners2 cornersNashville SC 3 corners, CF Montréal 2 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls12 foulsNashville SC 9 fouls, CF Montréal 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardNashville SC 1 card, CF Montréal 1 card
  • Passes641 passes365 passesNashville SC 641 passes, CF Montréal 365 passes
  • Pass accuracy89.4%85.5%Nashville SC 89.4%, CF Montréal 85.5%
  • Shots inside box6 shots6 shotsNashville SC 6 shots, CF Montréal 6 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks2 blocksNashville SC 4 blocks, CF Montréal 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves0 savesNashville SC 2 saves, CF Montréal 0 saves
  • Offsides1 offside0 offsidesNashville SC 1 offside, CF Montréal 0 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Matthew Corcoran · Nashville SC · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHany Mukhtar · Nashville SC · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndy Najar · Nashville SC · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedShakur Mohammed · Nashville SC · 24′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHany Mukhtar · Nashville SC · 48′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedShakur Mohammed · Nashville SC · 65′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNoah Streit · CF Montréal · 56′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHennadii Synchuk · CF Montréal · 82′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFrankie Amaya · CF Montréal · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAlex Muyl · Nashville SC · 9′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPrince Owusu · CF Montréal · 74′ · 0.10 xG · on targetEfraín Morales · CF Montréal · 85′ · 0.10 xG · on targetPrince Owusu · CF Montréal · 56′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedPrince Owusu · CF Montréal · 85′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedShakur Mohammed · Nashville SC · 2′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedSam Surridge · Nashville SC · 9′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedSam Surridge · Nashville SC · 68′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nashville SC: 10 shots, 1 on target, 1.72 xG. CF Montréal: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.66 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Sam Surridge · Nashville SC · 68′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nashville SC 1.72 xG · CF Montréal 0.66 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Nashville SC
2Draws
1CF Montréal
CF Montréal — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer1–1
Nashville SC — CF Montréal · Major League Soccer3–0
CF Montréal — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer0–0
Nashville SC — CF Montréal · Major League Soccer4–1
CF Montréal — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nashville SC favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · CF Montréal in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nashville SC16 matchesCF Montréal16 matches
2.06 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/161.38 goals/match
0.69 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/162 goals/match
1.18 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲ 1.47 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots16/16▲ 12.9 shots/match
4.94 shots/match ▲Shots on target16/164.44 shots/match
54.6% ●Possession16/1647.8%
4.44 corners/matchCorners16/16● 5.13 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/72.14 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls16/1613.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 23 Jul 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNashville SCCF Montréal
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headNashville SC — CF Montréal
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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