PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Saputo Stadium
0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Inter Miami CF won 0–1.

Shots
820
Shots on target
22
Expected goals
2.041.81
Possession
43%57%

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots20 shotsCF Montréal 8 shots, Inter Miami CF 20 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots2 shotsCF Montréal 2 shots, Inter Miami CF 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.04 xG1.81 xGCF Montréal 2.04 xG, Inter Miami CF 1.81 xG
  • Possession43%57%CF Montréal 43%, Inter Miami CF 57%
  • Corners5 corners6 cornersCF Montréal 5 corners, Inter Miami CF 6 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls14 foulsCF Montréal 7 fouls, Inter Miami CF 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards2 cardsCF Montréal 0 cards, Inter Miami CF 2 cards
  • Passes387 passes528 passesCF Montréal 387 passes, Inter Miami CF 528 passes
  • Pass accuracy83.7%87.1%CF Montréal 83.7%, Inter Miami CF 87.1%
  • Shots inside box6 shots11 shotsCF Montréal 6 shots, Inter Miami CF 11 shots
  • Blocked shots0 blocks9 blocksCF Montréal 0 blocks, Inter Miami CF 9 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save2 savesCF Montréal 1 save, Inter Miami CF 2 saves
  • Offsides1 offside1 offsideCF Montréal 1 offside, Inter Miami CF 1 offside

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Casemiro · Inter Miami CF · 60′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMateo Silvetti · Inter Miami CF · 66′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMateo Silvetti · Inter Miami CF · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTelasco Segovia · Inter Miami CF · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTelasco Segovia · Inter Miami CF · 68′ · 0.02 xG · on targetCasemiro · Inter Miami CF · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGermán Berterame · Inter Miami CF · 26′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTelasco Segovia · Inter Miami CF · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTelasco Segovia · Inter Miami CF · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPreston Plambeck · Inter Miami CF · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMateo Silvetti · Inter Miami CF · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIan Fray · Inter Miami CF · 21′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMicael · Inter Miami CF · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYannick Bright · Inter Miami CF · 3′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMateo Silvetti · Inter Miami CF · 15′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEfraín Morales · CF Montréal · 19′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatthew Longstaff · CF Montréal · 27′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPrince Owusu · CF Montréal · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLuis Suárez · Inter Miami CF · 49′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGermán Berterame · Inter Miami CF · 53′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedHennadii Synchuk · CF Montréal · 50′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedPrince Owusu · CF Montréal · 51′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMateo Silvetti · Inter Miami CF · 35′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedHennadii Synchuk · CF Montréal · 65′ · 0.13 xG · on targetLuis Suárez · Inter Miami CF · 59′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedHennadii Synchuk · CF Montréal · 13′ · 0.64 xG · on targetLuis Suárez · Inter Miami CF · 81′ · 0.82 xG · goalDaniel Rios · CF Montréal · 5′ · 0.87 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

CF Montréal: 8 shots, 2 on target, 2.06 xG. Inter Miami CF: 20 shots, 2 on target, 1.74 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Luis Suárez · Inter Miami CF · 81′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: CF Montréal 2.06 xG · Inter Miami CF 1.74 xG.

Full time

What the match recorded

Inter Miami CF beat CF Montréal 1–0. Recorded in this match (CF Montréal – Inter Miami CF): shots 8–20, shots on target 2–2, expected goals 2.04–1.81, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

CF Montréal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

CF Montréal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.29 goals/match1.58 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for CF Montréal, Inter Miami CF.

2.96 days ▲Rest daysCF Montréal · Inter Miami CF3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricCF MontréalInter Miami CFBaseline
Rest days2.96 days3 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Inter Miami CF show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Inter Miami CF's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.6 shots/match ▲ShotsCF Montréal · Inter Miami CF16.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCF MontréalInter Miami CFBaseline
Shots12.6 shots/match16.4 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against12.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2CF Montréal
0Draws
3Inter Miami CF
CF Montréal — Inter Miami CF · Major League Soccer1–4
Inter Miami CF — CF Montréal · Major League Soccer4–2
CF Montréal — Inter Miami CF · Major League Soccer2–3
Inter Miami CF — CF Montréal · Major League Soccer2–3
CF Montréal — Inter Miami CF · Major League Soccer1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CF Montréal favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Inter Miami CF in 9 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CF Montréal17 matchesInter Miami CF17 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲ 2.53 goals/match
1.94 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲ 1.76 goals/match
1.51 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲ 2.34 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots17/17▲ 16.4 shots/match
4.29 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲ 6.59 shots/match
47.5%Possession17/17● 57.4%
5.12 corners/matchCorners17/17● 6 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCards7/43 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls17/1712.9 fouls/match

Style profile

Style profile

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

CF Montréal35.0
Inter Miami CF95.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

CF Montréal28.9
Inter Miami CF96.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

CF Montréal36.6
Inter Miami CF37.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

CF Montréal55.0
Inter Miami CF75.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

CF Montréal54.1
Inter Miami CF77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 62%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

CF Montréal61.7
Inter Miami CF88.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

CF Montréal52.5
Inter Miami CF86.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 match

CF Montréal / Inter Miami CF

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Jul 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCF MontréalInter Miami CF
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headCF Montréal — Inter Miami CF
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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