PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Yankee Stadium

New York City FC 3–1 Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer

3–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

New York City FC won 3–1.

Shots
109
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
1.391.36
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

New York City FC beat Chicago Fire 3–1. Recorded in this match (New York City FC – Chicago Fire): shots 10–9, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 1.39–1.36, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for New York City FC, Chicago Fire.

3 days ▲Rest daysNew York City FC · Chicago Fire3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNew York City FCChicago FireBaseline
Rest days3 days3 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

New York City FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

New York City FC's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8 shots/match11.1 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

New York City FC have a visible home split

moderate

New York City FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match11.1 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots9 shotsNew York City FC 10 shots, Chicago Fire 9 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shotsNew York City FC 3 shots, Chicago Fire 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.39 xG1.36 xGNew York City FC 1.39 xG, Chicago Fire 1.36 xG
  • Possession46%54%New York City FC 46%, Chicago Fire 54%
  • Corners1 corner2 cornersNew York City FC 1 corner, Chicago Fire 2 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls16 foulsNew York City FC 8 fouls, Chicago Fire 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cardsNew York City FC 1 card, Chicago Fire 3 cards
  • Passes431 passes493 passesNew York City FC 431 passes, Chicago Fire 493 passes
  • Pass accuracy80.3%81.3%New York City FC 80.3%, Chicago Fire 81.3%
  • Shots inside box6 shots6 shotsNew York City FC 6 shots, Chicago Fire 6 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks2 blocksNew York City FC 3 blocks, Chicago Fire 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves0 savesNew York City FC 4 saves, Chicago Fire 0 saves
  • Offsides5 offsides1 offsideNew York City FC 5 offsides, Chicago Fire 1 offside

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Anton Salétros · Chicago Fire · 6′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNicolás Fernández · New York City FC · 10′ · 0.02 xG · goalTayvon Gray · New York City FC · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMauricio Pineda · Chicago Fire · 83′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPhilip Zinckernagel · Chicago Fire · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMalachi Jones · New York City FC · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAnton Salétros · Chicago Fire · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAgustin Ojeda · New York City FC · 29′ · 0.05 xG · goalHannes Wolf · New York City FC · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJames Sands · New York City FC · 61′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMaren Haile-Selassie · Chicago Fire · 42′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTalles Magno · New York City FC · 45′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTalles Magno · New York City FC · 75′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRobert Lewandowski · Chicago Fire · 82′ · 0.12 xG · on targetPuso Dithejane · Chicago Fire · 89′ · 0.20 xG · on targetBénie Traoré · New York City FC · 82′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedRobert Lewandowski · Chicago Fire · 48′ · 0.41 xG · off target or blockedJoel Waterman · Chicago Fire · 21′ · 0.44 xG · goalMalachi Jones · New York City FC · 41′ · 0.60 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

New York City FC: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.36 xG. Chicago Fire: 9 shots, 5 on target, 1.39 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Nicolás Fernández · New York City FC · 10′Agustin Ojeda · New York City FC · 29′Malachi Jones · New York City FC · 41′Joel Waterman · Chicago Fire · 21′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: New York City FC 1.36 xG · Chicago Fire 1.39 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3New York City FC
2Draws
0Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire — New York City FC · Major League Soccer1–3
New York City FC — Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer3–1
New York City FC — Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer2–2
Chicago Fire — New York City FC · Major League Soccer0–0
New York City FC — Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: New York City FC favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Chicago Fire in 8 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

New York City FC17 matchesChicago Fire16 matches
1.76 goals/matchGoals scored17/16▲ 1.88 goals/match
1.35 goals/matchGoals allowed17/161.38 goals/match
1.14 xG/matchExpected goals14/13▲ 1.96 xG/match
11.1 shots/matchShots17/16▲ 14.4 shots/match
4.88 shots/matchShots on target17/165.13 shots/match
55.2% ●Possession17/1652.8%
3.18 corners/matchCorners17/16● 4.38 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/42.25 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls17/1613.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples17 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Jul 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNew York City FCChicago Fire
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headNew York City FC — Chicago Fire
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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