Major League Soccer · 2026Bank of America Stadium
22Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Charlotte FC and Atlanta United drew 2–2.

Shots
2412
Shots on target
96
Expected goals
3.071.6
Possession
51%49%

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots24 shots12 shotsCharlotte FC 24 shots, Atlanta United 12 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots6 shotsCharlotte FC 9 shots, Atlanta United 6 shots
  • Expected goals3.07 xG1.6 xGCharlotte FC 3.07 xG, Atlanta United 1.6 xG
  • Possession51%49%Charlotte FC 51%, Atlanta United 49%
  • Corners6 corners3 cornersCharlotte FC 6 corners, Atlanta United 3 corners
  • Fouls3 fouls9 foulsCharlotte FC 3 fouls, Atlanta United 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cardsCharlotte FC 1 card, Atlanta United 3 cards
  • Passes486 passes477 passesCharlotte FC 486 passes, Atlanta United 477 passes
  • Pass accuracy90.7%89.1%Charlotte FC 90.7%, Atlanta United 89.1%
  • Shots inside box18 shots10 shotsCharlotte FC 18 shots, Atlanta United 10 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks0 blocksCharlotte FC 4 blocks, Atlanta United 0 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves7 savesCharlotte FC 4 saves, Atlanta United 7 saves
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesCharlotte FC 1 offside, Atlanta United 2 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Pep Biel · Charlotte FC · 3′ · 0.01 xG · on targetKerwin Vargas · Charlotte FC · 68′ · 0.01 xG · on targetElías Báez · Atlanta United · 73′ · 0.01 xG · on targetKerwin Vargas · Charlotte FC · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAleksey Miranchuk · Atlanta United · 43′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLuca De La Torre · Charlotte FC · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMiguel Almirón · Atlanta United · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTristan Muyumba · Atlanta United · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAshley Westwood · Charlotte FC · 44′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedElías Báez · Atlanta United · 57′ · 0.04 xG · goalKerwin Vargas · Charlotte FC · 72′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarry Toffolo · Charlotte FC · 53′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIdan Toklomati · Charlotte FC · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFafà Picault · Atlanta United · 40′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLiel Abada · Charlotte FC · 44′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIdan Toklomati · Charlotte FC · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetFafà Picault · Atlanta United · 42′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedIdan Toklomati · Charlotte FC · 81′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMorrison Agyemang · Charlotte FC · 38′ · 0.10 xG · on targetPep Biel · Charlotte FC · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedKerwin Vargas · Charlotte FC · 34′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedTyger Smalls · Charlotte FC · 90′ · 0.12 xG · on targetIdan Toklomati · Charlotte FC · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMiguel Almirón · Atlanta United · 70′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedIdan Toklomati · Charlotte FC · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedElías Báez · Atlanta United · 11′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMiguel Almirón · Atlanta United · 38′ · 0.16 xG · on targetHarry Toffolo · Charlotte FC · 44′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedLiel Abada · Charlotte FC · 45′ · 0.18 xG · on targetMiguel Almirón · Atlanta United · 76′ · 0.18 xG · goalIdan Toklomati · Charlotte FC · 66′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedLiel Abada · Charlotte FC · 45′ · 0.21 xG · goalKerwin Vargas · Charlotte FC · 16′ · 0.43 xG · goalArchie Goodwin · Charlotte FC · 16′ · 0.43 xG · on targetAleksey Miranchuk · Atlanta United · 45′ · 0.68 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Charlotte FC: 23 shots, 9 on target, 2.81 xG. Atlanta United: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.60 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Kerwin Vargas · Charlotte FC · 16′Liel Abada · Charlotte FC · 45′Elías Báez · Atlanta United · 57′Miguel Almirón · Atlanta United · 76′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Charlotte FC 2.81 xG · Atlanta United 1.60 xG.

Full time

What the match recorded

Charlotte FC and Atlanta United drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Charlotte FC – Atlanta United): shots 24–12, shots on target 9–6, expected goals 3.07–1.6, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Charlotte FC's recent record differs from the season

weak

Charlotte FC's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14 shots/match ShotsLast 5 · Season11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots14 shots/match11.5 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Charlotte FC have a visible home split

moderate

Charlotte FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.7 shots/match ShotsHome only · Season11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match11.5 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Charlotte FC
0Draws
1Atlanta United
Atlanta UnitedCharlotte FC · Major League Soccer23
Charlotte FCAtlanta United · Major League Soccer20
Charlotte FCAtlanta United · Major League Soccer01
Atlanta UnitedCharlotte FC · Major League Soccer23
Atlanta UnitedCharlotte FC · Major League Soccer13

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Charlotte FC favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Atlanta United in 3 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Charlotte FC16 matchesAtlanta United16 matches
1.63 goals/match Goals scored16/161 goal/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed16/161.63 goals/match
1.61 xG/match Expected goals13/131.35 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShots16/16 13 shots/match
4.88 shots/match Shots on target16/164.19 shots/match
47.3%Possession16/16 52.7%
4.75 corners/matchCorners16/16 4.88 corners/match
2.17 cards/matchCards6/52.6 cards/match
9.63 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.6 fouls/match

Style profile

Style profile

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Charlotte FC31.7
Atlanta United65.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Charlotte FC48.4
Atlanta United25.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Charlotte FC34.4
Atlanta United62.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Charlotte FC28.3
Atlanta United38.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Charlotte FC19.1
Atlanta United45.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 66%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Charlotte FC48.3
Atlanta United55.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Charlotte FC36.7
Atlanta United42.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

60 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 match

Charlotte FC / Atlanta United

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 23 Jul 2026, 04:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

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