PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Fri, 17 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTCScheduled

St. Louis City

vsPre-match analysis

Sporting Kansas City

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sporting Kansas City's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: St. Louis City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness54 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Sporting Kansas City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sporting Kansas City's last-five shots average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots14.2 shots/match9.29 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

St. Louis City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

St. Louis City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match9.29 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against11.4 shots/match16.4 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

St. Louis City48.3
Sporting Kansas City11.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

St. Louis City32.8
Sporting Kansas City5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

St. Louis City70
Sporting Kansas City9.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

St. Louis City61.7
Sporting Kansas City18.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

St. Louis City80.8
Sporting Kansas City43.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 61%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

St. Louis City85
Sporting Kansas City8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

St. Louis City61.2
Sporting Kansas City24.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricSt. Louis CitySporting Kansas City
Goals scored1.4 goals/match5 obs.1.4 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed0.8 goals/match5 obs.2.2 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.76 xG/match5 obs.1.39 xG/match5 obs.
Shots13 shots/match5 obs.14.2 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target3.4 shots/match5 obs.6.6 shots/match5 obs.
Possession46.4%5 obs.45.6%5 obs.
Corners3.8 corners/match5 obs.5.2 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—2 obs.—0 obs.
Fouls15.8 fouls/match5 obs.15 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricSt. Louis CitySporting Kansas City
Goals scored1.5 goals/match10 obs.1 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.4 goals/match10 obs.2.9 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.52 xG/match10 obs.0.95 xG/match10 obs.
Shots13.3 shots/match10 obs.10.3 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target3.8 shots/match10 obs.4.4 shots/match10 obs.
Possession48.8%10 obs.45.7%10 obs.
Corners5.7 corners/match10 obs.4 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—2 obs.—0 obs.
Fouls13.3 fouls/match10 obs.14.4 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches
MetricSt. Louis CitySporting Kansas City
Goals scored1.14 goals/match14 obs.1 goals/match14 obs.
Goals allowed1.43 goals/match14 obs.2.57 goals/match14 obs.
Expected goals1.51 xG/match11 obs.0.93 xG/match11 obs.
Shots13.6 shots/match14 obs.9.29 shots/match14 obs.
Shots on target4.21 shots/match14 obs.4 shots/match14 obs.
Possession49.4%14 obs.44.8%14 obs.
Corners5.86 corners/match14 obs.3.71 corners/match14 obs.
Cards3.2 cards/match5 obs.1.33 cards/match3 obs.
Fouls12.8 fouls/match14 obs.13.4 fouls/match14 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 7 matches
MetricSt. Louis CitySporting Kansas City
Goals scored1.83 goals/match6 obs.0.71 goals/match7 obs.
Goals allowed1.17 goals/match6 obs.3.14 goals/match7 obs.
Expected goals1.53 xG/match4 obs.0.61 xG/match6 obs.
Shots15 shots/match6 obs.8.43 shots/match7 obs.
Shots on target5.83 shots/match6 obs.2.86 shots/match7 obs.
Possession50.7%6 obs.45.1%7 obs.
Corners5.83 corners/match6 obs.3.43 corners/match7 obs.
Cards—2 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls13.2 fouls/match6 obs.15.4 fouls/match7 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.14 goals/match8th1 goals/match3th1.57 goals/match14 / 14
Goals allowedseason1.43 goals/match32th2.57 goals/match95th1.57 goals/match14 / 14
Expected goalsseason1.51 xG/match62th0.93 xG/match2th1.46 xG/match11 / 11
Expected goals allowedseason1.21 xG/match22th1.98 xG/match88th1.38 xG/match11 / 11
Shotsseason13.6 shots/match72th9.29 shots/match2th13.1 shots/match14 / 14
Shots allowedseason11.4 shots/match22th16.4 shots/match88th12.3 shots/match14 / 14
Shots on targetseason4.21 shots/match18th4 shots/match10th4.66 shots/match14 / 14
Shots on target allowedseason4.36 shots/match37th5.79 shots/match88th4.53 shots/match14 / 14
Possessionseason49.4%48th44.8%12th49.4%14 / 14
Cornersseason5.86 corners/match85th3.71 corners/match8th4.73 corners/match14 / 14
Corners allowedseason4.43 corners/match28th6 corners/match85th4.93 corners/match14 / 14
Cardsseason3.2 cards/match92th1.33 cards/match8th2.45 cards/match5 / 3
Foulsseason12.8 fouls/match70th13.4 fouls/match78th12.1 fouls/match14 / 14
Clean-sheet frequencyseason14%37th0%3th20%14 / 14
Scoring frequencyseason71%23th64%5th79%14 / 14

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures54.2 days—54 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures0 matches—0 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
TeamsSt. Louis CitySporting Kansas City
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 17 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v3