PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026
3–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

St.Louis City won 3–2.

Shots
2012
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
2.41.02
Possession
53%47%

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots12 shotsSt.Louis City 20 shots, Sporting Kansas City 12 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsSt.Louis City 6 shots, Sporting Kansas City 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.4 xG1.02 xGSt.Louis City 2.4 xG, Sporting Kansas City 1.02 xG
  • Possession53%47%St.Louis City 53%, Sporting Kansas City 47%
  • Corners5 corners6 cornersSt.Louis City 5 corners, Sporting Kansas City 6 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls11 foulsSt.Louis City 15 fouls, Sporting Kansas City 11 fouls

Full time

What the match recorded

St. Louis City beat Sporting Kansas City 3–2. Recorded in this match (St. Louis City – Sporting Kansas City): shots 20–12, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 2.4–1.02, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

St. Louis City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

St. Louis City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.59 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

St. Louis City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

St. Louis City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14 shots/match ▲ShotsSt. Louis City · Sporting Kansas City9.47 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSt. Louis CitySporting Kansas CityBaseline
Shots14 shots/match9.47 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against11.4 shots/match16.6 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1St.Louis City
3Draws
1Sporting Kansas City
St.Louis City — Sporting Kansas City · Major League Soccer2–2
Sporting Kansas City — St.Louis City · Major League Soccer2–0
St.Louis City — Sporting Kansas City · Major League Soccer3–1
Sporting Kansas City — St.Louis City · Major League Soccer1–1
Sporting Kansas City — St.Louis City · Major League Soccer3–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: St.Louis City favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Sporting Kansas City in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

St.Louis City15 matchesSporting Kansas City15 matches
1.27 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/151.07 goals/match
1.47 goals/match ▲Goals allowed15/152.6 goals/match
1.58 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/120.93 xG/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots15/159.47 shots/match
4.33 shots/match ▲Shots on target15/153.93 shots/match
49.6% ●Possession15/1544.9%
5.8 corners/match ●Corners15/153.87 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/31.33 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls15/1513.3 fouls/match

Style profile

Style profile

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

St.Louis City51.7
Sporting Kansas City11.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

St.Louis City41.7
Sporting Kansas City5.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

St.Louis City71.1
Sporting Kansas City9.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

St.Louis City75.0
Sporting Kansas City18.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

St.Louis City81.7
Sporting Kansas City43.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 60%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

St.Louis City85.0
Sporting Kansas City11.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

St.Louis City66.2
Sporting Kansas City25.0
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

  • Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 0 matches
54.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/154 days

St.Louis City / Sporting Kansas City

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 17 Jul 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSt.Louis CitySporting Kansas City
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headSt.Louis City — Sporting Kansas City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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