PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Toronto FC vs DC United · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.51.24
Expected goals
1.191.48
Shots
1212.8
Possession
45.4%38.8%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: DC United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

DC United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

DC United's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.24 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.24 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toronto FC favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · DC United in 4 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toronto FC26 matchesDC United25 matches
1.5 goals/match ▲Goals scored26/251.24 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed26/25▲ 1.56 goals/match
1.19 xG/matchExpected goals24/22▲ 1.48 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots26/25▲ 12.8 shots/match
4.38 shots/matchShots on target26/254.44 shots/match
45.4% ●Possession26/2538.8%
4.88 corners/match ●Corners26/254.84 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards6/62.67 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls26/2513.4 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Toronto FC
2Draws
2DC United
DC United — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer2–1
Toronto FC — DC United · Major League Soccer2–0
DC United — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer2–2
Toronto FC — DC United · Major League Soccer1–3
DC United — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness39 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToronto FCDC United
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headToronto FC — DC United
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required