PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Inter Miami CF vs FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
2.422.16
Expected goals
2.111.72
Shots
15.614.4
Possession
56.7%50.8%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: inter Miami's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

FC Cincinnati's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.16 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match2.16 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Inter Miami show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Inter Miami's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.6 shots/match ▲ShotsInter Miami · FC Cincinnati14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricInter MiamiFC CincinnatiBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match14.4 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against12.6 shots/match15.2 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Inter Miami CF favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · FC Cincinnati in 0 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Inter Miami CF26 matchesFC Cincinnati25 matches
2.42 goals/match ▲Goals scored26/252.16 goals/match
1.85 goals/match ▲Goals allowed26/252.44 goals/match
2.11 xG/match ▲Expected goals23/231.72 xG/match
15.6 shots/match ▲Shots26/2514.4 shots/match
6.15 shots/matchShots on target26/256.08 shots/match
56.7% ●Possession26/2550.8%
5.42 corners/match ●Corners26/255 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/92.78 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls26/2511.3 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Inter Miami CF
1Draws
1FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati — Inter Miami CF · Major League Soccer3–5
FC Cincinnati — Inter Miami CF · Major League Soccer0–4
Inter Miami CF — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer0–0
FC Cincinnati — Inter Miami CF · Major League Soccer3–0
Inter Miami CF — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness39 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsInter Miami CFFC Cincinnati
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headInter Miami CF — FC Cincinnati
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required