PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

New York City FC vs Atlanta United · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.51.15
Expected goals
1.261.39
Shots
11.612.8
Possession
54.2%51.1%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: new York City FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: new York City FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

New York City FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

New York City FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

New York City FC have a visible home split

moderate

New York City FC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match11.6 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: New York City FC favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Atlanta United in 3 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

New York City FC26 matchesAtlanta United26 matches
1.5 goals/match ▲Goals scored26/261.15 goals/match
1.31 goals/match ▲Goals allowed26/261.65 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲ 1.39 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots26/26▲ 12.8 shots/match
4.65 shots/match ▲Shots on target26/263.85 shots/match
54.2% ●Possession26/2651.1%
3.77 corners/matchCorners26/26● 5 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards4/62.67 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls26/2611.3 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1New York City FC
3Draws
1Atlanta United
Atlanta United — New York City FC · Major League Soccer2–2
New York City FC — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer4–0
Atlanta United — New York City FC · Major League Soccer4–3
Atlanta United — New York City FC · Major League Soccer2–2
New York City FC — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness40 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 28 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNew York City FCAtlanta United
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headNew York City FC — Atlanta United
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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