PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
2.122
Expected goals
1.731.94
Shots
14.616.4
Possession
50.9%47.1%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: philadelphia Union's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: philadelphia Union's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Philadelphia Union's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Philadelphia Union's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for4 goals/match2 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Philadelphia Union show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Philadelphia Union's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.6 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Cincinnati · Philadelphia Union16.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC CincinnatiPhiladelphia UnionBaseline
Shots14.6 shots/match16.4 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against15.2 shots/match8.96 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Cincinnati favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Philadelphia Union in 9 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Cincinnati26 matchesPhiladelphia Union27 matches
2.12 goals/match ▲Goals scored26/272 goals/match
2.46 goals/matchGoals allowed26/27▲ 1.63 goals/match
1.73 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲ 1.94 xG/match
14.6 shots/matchShots26/27▲ 16.4 shots/match
6 shots/match ▲Shots on target26/275.22 shots/match
50.9% ●Possession26/2747.1%
5.04 corners/matchCorners26/27● 5.96 corners/match
2.78 cards/matchCards9/73.14 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls26/2715.2 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FC Cincinnati
0Draws
3Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer5–0
FC Cincinnati — Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer0–1
Philadelphia Union — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer4–1
Philadelphia Union — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer1–2
FC Cincinnati — Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer4–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness35 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC CincinnatiPhiladelphia Union
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headFC Cincinnati — Philadelphia Union
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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