PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
2.042
Expected goals
1.411.94
Shots
12.416.4
Possession
54%47.1%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: philadelphia Union's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: nashville SC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Philadelphia Union's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Philadelphia Union's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for4 goals/match2 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nashville SC show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nashville SC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.4 shots/match ▲ShotsNashville SC · Philadelphia Union16.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNashville SCPhiladelphia UnionBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match16.4 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against10.9 shots/match8.96 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nashville SC favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Philadelphia Union in 6 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nashville SC27 matchesPhiladelphia Union27 matches
2.04 goals/matchGoals scored27/272 goals/match
0.78 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/271.63 goals/match
1.41 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲ 1.94 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots27/27▲ 16.4 shots/match
4.93 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲ 5.22 shots/match
54% ●Possession27/2747.1%
5.3 corners/matchCorners27/27● 5.96 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/73.14 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls27/2715.2 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Nashville SC
1Draws
2Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer0–0
Nashville SC — Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer1–0
Philadelphia Union — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer1–3
Philadelphia Union — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer3–0
Nashville SC — Philadelphia Union · Major League Soccer1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness32 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 29 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNashville SCPhiladelphia Union
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headNashville SC — Philadelphia Union
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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