PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
2.111.36
Expected goals
1.551.59
Shots
12.913.6
Possession
54.1%51.3%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: nashville SC's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Nashville SC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nashville SC's last-five shots average is above their season average.

17.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots17.8 shots/match12.9 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nashville SC favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · New York Red Bulls in 2 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nashville SC28 matchesNew York Red Bulls28 matches
2.11 goals/match ▲Goals scored28/281.36 goals/match
0.79 goals/match ▲Goals allowed28/281.86 goals/match
1.55 xG/matchExpected goals25/251.59 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots28/28▲ 13.6 shots/match
5.14 shots/match ▲Shots on target28/284.86 shots/match
54.1% ●Possession28/2851.3%
5.32 corners/matchCorners28/28● 5.61 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/62.5 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls28/2812.6 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Nashville SC
2Draws
1New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer0–1
Nashville SC — New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer2–1
New York Red Bulls — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer2–0
New York Red Bulls — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer0–0
Nashville SC — New York Red Bulls · Major League Soccer0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness22 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNashville SCNew York Red Bulls
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headNashville SC — New York Red Bulls
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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