PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Atlanta United vs Toronto FC · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.191.44
Expected goals
1.371.16
Shots
12.612
Possession
51.1%45.1%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: toronto FC's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Toronto FC's recent record differs from the season

weak

Toronto FC's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14.6 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots14.6 shots/match12 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlanta United favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Toronto FC in 3 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlanta United27 matchesToronto FC27 matches
1.19 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲ 1.44 goals/match
1.67 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/271.89 goals/match
1.37 xG/match ▲Expected goals24/251.16 xG/match
12.6 shots/match ▲Shots27/2712 shots/match
3.89 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲ 4.33 shots/match
51.1% ●Possession27/2745.1%
4.96 corners/match ●Corners27/274.81 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards6/62 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls27/2711.1 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Atlanta United
2Draws
1Toronto FC
Toronto FC — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer1–2
Atlanta United — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer0–0
Toronto FC — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer1–1
Atlanta United — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer2–1
Toronto FC — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness36 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlanta UnitedToronto FC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headAtlanta United — Toronto FC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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