PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.771.78
Expected goals
1.731.53
Shots
14.311.8
Possession
52%49.2%

30-second read

What the record shows

The season records do not separate these clubs, so the strongest stored context is their shared history: 5 meetings, 3 to Chicago Fire, 1 drawn, 1 to Orlando City SC. From this fixture's own record: chicago Fire's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Past meetings are history, not a forecast.

Orlando City SC's recent record differs from the season

weak

Orlando City SC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.78 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Chicago Fire show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Chicago Fire's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.3 shots/match ▲ShotsChicago Fire · Orlando City SC11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricChicago FireOrlando City SCBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against12.2 shots/match16.9 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Chicago Fire favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Orlando City SC in 0 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Chicago Fire26 matchesOrlando City SC27 matches
1.77 goals/matchGoals scored26/271.78 goals/match
1.46 goals/match ▲Goals allowed26/272.37 goals/match
1.73 xG/match ▲Expected goals22/231.53 xG/match
14.3 shots/match ▲Shots25/2611.8 shots/match
5.28 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/264.81 shots/match
52% ●Possession25/2649.2%
4.52 corners/match ●Corners25/264.08 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/42.75 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls25/2610.3 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Chicago Fire
1Draws
1Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC — Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer1–2
Chicago Fire — Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer3–1
Orlando City SC — Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer1–3
Chicago Fire — Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer0–0
Orlando City SC — Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer4–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness32 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 29 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsChicago FireOrlando City SC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headChicago Fire — Orlando City SC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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