PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.411.77
Expected goals
1.381.73
Shots
12.114.3
Possession
55%52%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: colorado Rapids's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. The next-strongest reading is weaker: chicago Fire's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Colorado Rapids have a visible home split

strong

Colorado Rapids's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.4 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Chicago Fire's recent record differs from the season

weak

Chicago Fire's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.77 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.77 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Colorado Rapids favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Chicago Fire in 6 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Colorado Rapids27 matchesChicago Fire26 matches
1.41 goals/matchGoals scored27/26▲ 1.77 goals/match
1.41 goals/matchGoals allowed27/261.46 goals/match
1.38 xG/matchExpected goals24/22▲ 1.73 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots27/25▲ 14.3 shots/match
4.15 shots/matchShots on target27/25▲ 5.28 shots/match
55% ●Possession27/2552%
4.93 corners/match ●Corners27/254.52 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards10/52.2 cards/match
14.7 fouls/matchFouls27/2512.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness35 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsColorado RapidsChicago Fire
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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