PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Atlanta United vs Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.151.8
Expected goals
1.391.76
Shots
12.814.1
Possession
51.1%51.8%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: atlanta United FC's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Atlanta United FC's recent record differs from the season

weak

Atlanta United FC's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlanta United favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Chicago Fire in 9 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlanta United26 matchesChicago Fire25 matches
1.15 goals/matchGoals scored26/25▲ 1.8 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowed26/25▲ 1.52 goals/match
1.39 xG/matchExpected goals23/21▲ 1.76 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots26/24▲ 14.1 shots/match
3.85 shots/matchShots on target26/24▲ 5.17 shots/match
51.1%Possession26/24● 51.8%
5 corners/match ●Corners26/244.46 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards6/42.25 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls26/2412.5 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Atlanta United
2Draws
2Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer1–0
Atlanta United — Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer2–2
Chicago Fire — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer2–1
Chicago Fire — Atlanta United · Major League Soccer0–0
Atlanta United — Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness35 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlanta UnitedChicago Fire
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headAtlanta United — Chicago Fire
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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