PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Orlando City SC vs New York City FC · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.771.5
Expected goals
1.551.26
Shots
11.811.6
Possession
48.6%54.2%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: new York City FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: new York City FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

New York City FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

New York City FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

New York City FC have a visible away split

moderate

New York City FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9 shots/match11.6 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Orlando City SC favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · New York City FC in 6 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Orlando City SC26 matchesNew York City FC26 matches
1.77 goals/match ▲Goals scored26/261.5 goals/match
2.31 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 1.31 goals/match
1.55 xG/match ▲Expected goals22/231.26 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots25/2611.6 shots/match
4.92 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/264.65 shots/match
48.6%Possession25/26● 54.2%
3.96 corners/match ●Corners25/263.77 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards4/42.5 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls25/2611.4 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Orlando City SC
1Draws
4New York City FC
New York City FC — Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer5–0
Orlando City SC — New York City FC · Major League Soccer1–2
New York City FC — Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer2–1
Orlando City SC — New York City FC · Major League Soccer1–1
New York City FC — Orlando City SC · Major League Soccer4–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness36 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOrlando City SCNew York City FC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headOrlando City SC — New York City FC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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