PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

DC United vs FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.242.16
Expected goals
1.481.72
Shots
12.814.4
Possession
38.8%50.8%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: FC Cincinnati have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

FC Cincinnati's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.16 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match2.16 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

FC Cincinnati have recorded the higher season possession share.

38.8%PossessionDC United · FC Cincinnati● 50.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricDC UnitedFC CincinnatiBaseline
Possession38.8%50.8%49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: DC United favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · FC Cincinnati in 8

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

DC United25 matchesFC Cincinnati25 matches
1.24 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 2.16 goals/match
1.56 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/252.44 goals/match
1.48 xG/matchExpected goals22/23▲ 1.72 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots25/25▲ 14.4 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲ 6.08 shots/match
38.8%Possession25/25● 50.8%
4.84 corners/matchCorners25/25● 5 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards6/92.78 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls25/2511.3 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2DC United
1Draws
2FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati — DC United · Major League Soccer1–2
DC United — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer0–1
DC United — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer2–3
FC Cincinnati — DC United · Major League Soccer0–0
DC United — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness35 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDC UnitedFC Cincinnati
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headDC United — FC Cincinnati
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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