Major League Soccer · 2026

FC Cincinnati vs DC United · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
2.161.24
Expected goals
1.721.48
Shots
14.412.8
Possession
50.8%38.8%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: FC Cincinnati's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

FC Cincinnati's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.16 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match2.16 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Cincinnati have a visible home split

moderate

FC Cincinnati's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match14.4 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

FC Cincinnati have recorded the higher season possession share.

50.8% ●PossessionFC Cincinnati · DC United38.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC CincinnatiDC UnitedBaseline
Possession50.8%38.8%49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Cincinnati favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · DC United in 5

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Cincinnati25 matchesDC United25 matches
2.16 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/251.24 goals/match
2.44 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 1.56 goals/match
1.72 xG/match ▲Expected goals23/221.48 xG/match
14.4 shots/match ▲Shots25/2512.8 shots/match
6.08 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/254.44 shots/match
50.8% ●Possession25/2538.8%
5 corners/match ●Corners25/254.84 corners/match
2.78 cards/matchCards9/62.67 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls25/2513.4 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FC Cincinnati
1Draws
2DC United
FC Cincinnati — DC United · Major League Soccer1–2
DC United — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer0–1
DC United — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer2–3
FC Cincinnati — DC United · Major League Soccer0–0
DC United — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness32 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 21 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

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