PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
2.121.44
Expected goals
1.731.13
Shots
14.611.9
Possession
50.9%56.4%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

FC Cincinnati's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.12 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match2.12 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Cincinnati favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Columbus Crew in 6 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Cincinnati26 matchesColumbus Crew27 matches
2.12 goals/match ▲Goals scored26/271.44 goals/match
2.46 goals/matchGoals allowed26/27▲ 1.59 goals/match
1.73 xG/match ▲Expected goals24/241.13 xG/match
14.6 shots/match ▲Shots26/2711.9 shots/match
6 shots/match ▲Shots on target26/273.93 shots/match
50.9%Possession26/27● 56.4%
5.04 corners/matchCorners26/27● 5.07 corners/match
2.78 cards/matchCards9/61.83 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls26/2710.3 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FC Cincinnati
0Draws
3Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer2–1
FC Cincinnati — Columbus Crew · Major League Soccer2–1
Columbus Crew — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer4–0
FC Cincinnati — Columbus Crew · Major League Soccer1–0
FC Cincinnati — Columbus Crew · Major League Soccer2–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness22 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC CincinnatiColumbus Crew
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headFC Cincinnati — Columbus Crew
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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