PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC · Major League Soccer

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.812.04
Expected goals
1.621.41
Shots
13.612.4
Possession
49.1%54%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: nashville SC's last-five shots average is above their season average. Alongside it: san Jose Earthquakes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Nashville SC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nashville SC's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15.6 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

San Jose Earthquakes have a visible home split

moderate

San Jose Earthquakes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.4 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: San Jose Earthquakes favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Nashville SC in 8 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

San Jose Earthquakes27 matchesNashville SC27 matches
1.81 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲ 2.04 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲ 0.78 goals/match
1.62 xG/match ▲Expected goals24/241.41 xG/match
13.6 shots/match ▲Shots27/2712.4 shots/match
5.19 shots/match ▲Shots on target27/274.93 shots/match
49.1%Possession27/27● 54%
6.41 corners/match ●Corners27/275.3 corners/match
2.88 cards/matchCards8/51.8 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls27/2711.9 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0San Jose Earthquakes
4Draws
0Nashville SC
Nashville SC — San Jose Earthquakes · Major League Soccer1–1
San Jose Earthquakes — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer1–1
Nashville SC — San Jose Earthquakes · Major League Soccer0–0
San Jose Earthquakes — Nashville SC · Major League Soccer2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness21 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSan Jose EarthquakesNashville SC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headSan Jose Earthquakes — Nashville SC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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