PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Charlotte FC 0–1 Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Chicago Fire won 0–1.

Shots
1118
Shots on target
28
Expected goals
1.191.11
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Chicago Fire beat Charlotte FC 1–0. Recorded in this match (Charlotte FC – Chicago Fire): shots 11–18, shots on target 2–8, expected goals 1.19–1.11, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Chicago Fire's recent record differs from the season

weak

Chicago Fire's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.77 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.77 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Chicago Fire show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Chicago Fire's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.2 shots/match ▲ShotsCharlotte FC · Chicago Fire14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCharlotte FCChicago FireBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match14.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against16.4 shots/match12.2 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots18 shotsCharlotte FC 11 shots, Chicago Fire 18 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots8 shotsCharlotte FC 2 shots, Chicago Fire 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.19 xG1.11 xGCharlotte FC 1.19 xG, Chicago Fire 1.11 xG
  • Possession41%59%Charlotte FC 41%, Chicago Fire 59%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersCharlotte FC 4 corners, Chicago Fire 6 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls15 foulsCharlotte FC 14 fouls, Chicago Fire 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards6 cards2 cardsCharlotte FC 6 cards, Chicago Fire 2 cards
  • Passes347 passes526 passesCharlotte FC 347 passes, Chicago Fire 526 passes
  • Pass accuracy82.7%88.2%Charlotte FC 82.7%, Chicago Fire 88.2%
  • Shots inside box8 shots8 shotsCharlotte FC 8 shots, Chicago Fire 8 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block6 blocksCharlotte FC 1 block, Chicago Fire 6 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves8 saves2 savesCharlotte FC 8 saves, Chicago Fire 2 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides0 offsidesCharlotte FC 3 offsides, Chicago Fire 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 23′Sergio OregelYellow card · Chicago Fire
  2. 34′Djibril DianiYellow card · Charlotte FC
  3. 38′Allan Saint-MaximinYellow card · Charlotte FC
  4. Half-time
  5. 58′Luca De La TorreGoal · Charlotte FC
  6. 59′Tyger SmallsGoal · Charlotte FC
  7. 74′Pep BielYellow card · Charlotte FC
  8. 81′David PorebaYellow card · Chicago Fire
  9. 82′Ashley WestwoodYellow card · Charlotte FC
  10. 90′Tim ReamYellow card · Charlotte FC
  11. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 49′Charlotte FC · 1 player changeTyger Smalls
  • 70′Charlotte FC · 2 player changesBrandt Bronico · David Schnegg
  • 75′Chicago Fire · 2 player changesMauricio Pineda · Andrew Gutman
  • 80′Chicago Fire · 2 player changesSamuel Rogers · David Poreba
  • 81′Charlotte FC · 1 player changeNathan Byrne
  • 81′Charlotte FC · 1 player changeNathan Richmond

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Charlotte FC
  1. Kristijan KahlinaG
  2. Tim ReamD
  3. Harry ToffoloD
  4. Henry KesslerD
  5. Will ClearyD
  6. Ashley WestwoodM
  7. Luca De La TorreM
  8. Djibril DianiM
  9. Archie GoodwinF
  10. Allan Saint-MaximinF
  11. Pep BielF
Chicago Fire
  1. Josh CohenG
  2. Leonardo BarrosoD
  3. Jack ElliottD
  4. Mbekezeli MbokaziD
  5. Jonathan DeanD
  6. Maren Haile-SelassieM
  7. Sergio OregelM
  8. Dje Tah D'AvillaM
  9. Philip ZinckernagelF
  10. Johan GomezF
  11. Jonathan BambaF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Charlotte FC
0Draws
3Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire — Charlotte FC · Major League Soccer2–1
Chicago Fire — Charlotte FC · Major League Soccer3–2
Charlotte FC — Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer1–4
Charlotte FC — Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer4–3
Chicago Fire — Charlotte FC · Major League Soccer0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Charlotte FC favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Chicago Fire in 10 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Charlotte FC27 matchesChicago Fire26 matches
1.74 goals/matchGoals scored27/261.77 goals/match
1.41 goals/matchGoals allowed27/261.46 goals/match
1.45 xG/matchExpected goals24/22▲ 1.73 xG/match
11.2 shots/matchShots27/25▲ 14.3 shots/match
4.78 shots/matchShots on target27/25▲ 5.28 shots/match
45.8%Possession27/25● 52%
4.48 corners/matchCorners27/25● 4.52 corners/match
2.7 cards/matchCards10/52.2 cards/match
9.81 fouls/matchFouls27/2512.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples27 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 27 Sept 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCharlotte FCChicago Fire
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headCharlotte FC — Chicago Fire
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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