PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

CF Montréal 3–1 FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer

3–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

CF Montréal won 3–1.

Shots
1518
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
2.071.97
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

CF Montréal beat FC Cincinnati 3–1. Recorded in this match (CF Montréal – FC Cincinnati): shots 15–18, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 2.07–1.97, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Cincinnati's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.12 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match2.12 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots18 shotsCF Montréal 15 shots, FC Cincinnati 18 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsCF Montréal 5 shots, FC Cincinnati 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.07 xG1.97 xGCF Montréal 2.07 xG, FC Cincinnati 1.97 xG
  • Possession45%55%CF Montréal 45%, FC Cincinnati 55%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersCF Montréal 4 corners, FC Cincinnati 6 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls7 foulsCF Montréal 8 fouls, FC Cincinnati 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsCF Montréal 2 cards, FC Cincinnati 2 cards
  • Passes450 passes541 passesCF Montréal 450 passes, FC Cincinnati 541 passes
  • Pass accuracy84.7%86.9%CF Montréal 84.7%, FC Cincinnati 86.9%
  • Shots inside box9 shots11 shotsCF Montréal 9 shots, FC Cincinnati 11 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks3 blocksCF Montréal 5 blocks, FC Cincinnati 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves2 savesCF Montréal 3 saves, FC Cincinnati 2 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides0 offsidesCF Montréal 2 offsides, FC Cincinnati 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 25′Daniel RíosGoal · CF Montréal
  2. 33′Matthew LongstaffYellow card · CF Montréal
  3. Half-time
  4. 47′Fabian HerbersYellow card · CF Montréal
  5. 64′Tom BarlowGoal · FC Cincinnati
  6. 71′Roman CelentanoYellow card · FC Cincinnati
  7. 72′Prince OwusuPenalty goal · CF Montréal
  8. 75′Prince OwusuGoal · CF Montréal
  9. 86′Teenage HadebeYellow card · FC Cincinnati
  10. Full time
Player changes · 7grouped by team and minute
  • 11′CF Montréal · 1 player changeFabian Herbers
  • 58′FC Cincinnati · 1 player changeDavid Douděra
  • 77′FC Cincinnati · 2 player changesKyle Smith · Kristian Fletcher
  • 86′FC Cincinnati · 2 player changesTah Anunga · Alvas Powell
  • 87′CF Montréal · 1 player changeFrankie Amaya

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

CF Montréal
  1. Sebastian BrezaG
  2. Jalen NealD
  3. Brayan CeballosD
  4. Brandan CraigD
  5. Luca PetrassoD
  6. Dawid BugajD
  7. Matthew LongstaffM
  8. Victor LoturiM
  9. Prince OwusuF
  10. Alexis SánchezF
  11. Daniel RíosF
FC Cincinnati
  1. Roman CelentanoG
  2. Nick HagglundD
  3. Samuel GidiD
  4. Teenage HadebeD
  5. Kenji Mboma DemD
  6. Bryan RamirezD
  7. Obinna NwobodoM
  8. EvanderM
  9. Gerardo ValenzuelaM
  10. Tom BarlowF
  11. Ayoub JabbariF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1CF Montréal
0Draws
4FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati — CF Montréal · Major League Soccer4–3
FC Cincinnati — CF Montréal · Major League Soccer3–0
CF Montréal — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer1–3
FC Cincinnati — CF Montréal · Major League Soccer4–1
CF Montréal — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: CF Montréal favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · FC Cincinnati in 6 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

CF Montréal27 matchesFC Cincinnati26 matches
1.26 goals/matchGoals scored27/26▲ 2.12 goals/match
2 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/262.46 goals/match
1.39 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲ 1.73 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots27/26▲ 14.6 shots/match
4.63 shots/matchShots on target27/26▲ 6 shots/match
48.4%Possession27/26● 50.9%
5 corners/matchCorners27/26● 5.04 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCards8/92.78 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls27/2611.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples27 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 27 Sept 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCF MontréalFC Cincinnati
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headCF Montréal — FC Cincinnati
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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