PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026

Houston Dynamo 2–2 FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Houston Dynamo and FC Cincinnati drew 2–2.

Shots
726
Shots on target
28
Expected goals
1.22.69
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

Houston Dynamo and FC Cincinnati drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Houston Dynamo – FC Cincinnati): shots 7–26, shots on target 2–8, expected goals 1.2–2.69, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Cincinnati's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.16 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match2.16 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots26 shotsHouston Dynamo 7 shots, FC Cincinnati 26 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots8 shotsHouston Dynamo 2 shots, FC Cincinnati 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.2 xG2.69 xGHouston Dynamo 1.2 xG, FC Cincinnati 2.69 xG
  • Possession43%57%Houston Dynamo 43%, FC Cincinnati 57%
  • Corners3 corners7 cornersHouston Dynamo 3 corners, FC Cincinnati 7 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls13 foulsHouston Dynamo 7 fouls, FC Cincinnati 13 fouls
  • Passes427 passes558 passesHouston Dynamo 427 passes, FC Cincinnati 558 passes
  • Pass accuracy86.7%92.3%Houston Dynamo 86.7%, FC Cincinnati 92.3%
  • Shots inside box5 shots15 shotsHouston Dynamo 5 shots, FC Cincinnati 15 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks8 blocksHouston Dynamo 2 blocks, FC Cincinnati 8 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves6 saves0 savesHouston Dynamo 6 saves, FC Cincinnati 0 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides2 offsidesHouston Dynamo 0 offsides, FC Cincinnati 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 38′GuilhermeGoal · Houston Dynamo
  2. Half-time
  3. 51′Mateusz BoguszPenalty goal · Houston Dynamo
  4. 73′Bryan RamirezGoal · FC Cincinnati
  5. 90′Kévin DenkeyPenalty goal · FC Cincinnati
  6. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 54′FC Cincinnati · 1 player changeBryan Ramirez
  • 55′FC Cincinnati · 2 player changesTeenage Hadebe · Tom Barlow
  • 67′Houston Dynamo · 1 player changeDiadié Samassékou
  • 81′Houston Dynamo · 2 player changesIbrahim Aliyu · Matthew Arana
  • 84′FC Cincinnati · 1 player changeKyle Smith
  • 87′FC Cincinnati · 1 player changeAyoub Jabbari
  • 90′Houston Dynamo · 1 player changeDuncan McGuire

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Houston Dynamo5-3-2
  1. Jonathan BondG
  2. Lucas HalterD
  3. ArturD
  4. Lawrence EnnaliD
  5. Agustin ReschD
  6. Felipe AndradeD
  7. Diadié SamassékouM
  8. Mateusz BoguszM
  9. Ibrahim AliyuM
  10. GuilhermeF
  11. Duncan McGuireF
FC Cincinnati3-5-2
  1. Roman CelentanoG
  2. Nick HagglundD
  3. Miles RobinsonD
  4. Kenji Mboma DemD
  5. Ender EcheniqueD
  6. Andrei ChirilaD
  7. Samuel GidiM
  8. Pavel BuchaM
  9. Gerardo ValenzuelaM
  10. Kévin DenkeyF
  11. Tom BarlowF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Houston Dynamo
1Draws
1FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati — Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer2–1
Houston Dynamo — FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Houston Dynamo favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · FC Cincinnati in 6 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Houston Dynamo26 matchesFC Cincinnati25 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored26/25▲ 2.16 goals/match
1.15 goals/match ▲Goals allowed26/252.44 goals/match
1.1 xG/matchExpected goals24/23▲ 1.72 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots26/25▲ 14.4 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target26/25▲ 6.08 shots/match
47.7%Possession26/25● 50.8%
4.15 corners/matchCorners26/25● 5 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards10/92.78 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls26/2511.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples26 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHouston DynamoFC Cincinnati
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headHouston Dynamo — FC Cincinnati
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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