Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 24 May 2026, 01:30 UTCFull time

Portland Timbers

1–3Full-time recap

San Jose Earthquakes

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: San Jose Earthquakes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: San Jose Earthquakes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples14 / 15home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

San Jose Earthquakes have a visible away split

moderate

San Jose Earthquakes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Home	Away	Baseline
Shots	9 shots/match	13.9 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

San Jose Earthquakes show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

San Jose Earthquakes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Home	Away	Baseline
Shots	12.2 shots/match	13.9 shots/match	13 shots/match
Shots against	17.9 shots/match	12.2 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

San Jose Earthquakes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

San Jose Earthquakes's last-five shots average is below their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Home	Away	Baseline
Shots	10.2 shots/match	13.9 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Portland Timbers55

San Jose Earthquakes18.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Portland Timbers41.1

San Jose Earthquakes82.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Portland Timbers13.9

San Jose Earthquakes72.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Portland Timbers41.7

San Jose Earthquakes81.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Portland Timbers45

San Jose Earthquakes25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Portland Timbers15

San Jose Earthquakes98.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Portland Timbers25

San Jose Earthquakes74.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

Metric	Portland Timbers	San Jose Earthquakes
Goals scored	1.8 goals/match5 obs.	1.8 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed	1.8 goals/match5 obs.	1.8 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals	1.38 xG/match5 obs.	1.24 xG/match5 obs.
Shots	14.4 shots/match5 obs.	10.2 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target	4.4 shots/match5 obs.	4.6 shots/match5 obs.
Possession	57.6%5 obs.	41%5 obs.
Corners	4.4 corners/match5 obs.	7.2 corners/match5 obs.
Cards	—0 obs.	—0 obs.
Fouls	9.8 fouls/match5 obs.	11 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

Metric	Portland Timbers	San Jose Earthquakes
Goals scored	1.6 goals/match10 obs.	2.7 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed	1.7 goals/match10 obs.	1.4 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals	1.2 xG/match10 obs.	1.94 xG/match10 obs.
Shots	12.3 shots/match10 obs.	14.3 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target	4.1 shots/match10 obs.	6 shots/match10 obs.
Possession	50.8%10 obs.	45.5%10 obs.
Corners	3.7 corners/match10 obs.	6.6 corners/match10 obs.
Cards	—1 obs.	—1 obs.
Fouls	9.8 fouls/match10 obs.	11.6 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

14 / 15 matches

Metric	Portland Timbers	San Jose Earthquakes
Goals scored	1.57 goals/match14 obs.	2.27 goals/match15 obs.
Goals allowed	2 goals/match14 obs.	1 goals/match15 obs.
Expected goals	1.29 xG/match11 obs.	1.81 xG/match12 obs.
Shots	12.2 shots/match14 obs.	13.9 shots/match15 obs.
Shots on target	4.36 shots/match14 obs.	5.6 shots/match15 obs.
Possession	49.6%14 obs.	46.5%15 obs.
Corners	4.14 corners/match14 obs.	7.4 corners/match15 obs.
Cards	3 cards/match5 obs.	1.75 cards/match4 obs.
Fouls	9.79 fouls/match14 obs.	11.7 fouls/match15 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 8 matches

Metric	Portland Timbers	San Jose Earthquakes
Goals scored	2.33 goals/match6 obs.	2.25 goals/match8 obs.
Goals allowed	1.83 goals/match6 obs.	1.13 goals/match8 obs.
Expected goals	1.25 xG/match4 obs.	1.19 xG/match7 obs.
Shots	11.5 shots/match6 obs.	9 shots/match8 obs.
Shots on target	5 shots/match6 obs.	3.75 shots/match8 obs.
Possession	51.8%6 obs.	44%8 obs.
Corners	3.33 corners/match6 obs.	4.75 corners/match8 obs.
Cards	2.67 cards/match3 obs.	—1 obs.
Fouls	9.33 fouls/match6 obs.	11 fouls/match8 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Metric	Home	Away	Competition	Samples
Goals scoredseason	1.57 goals/match47th	2.27 goals/match88th	1.57 goals/match	14 / 15
Goals allowedseason	2 goals/match75th	1 goals/match12th	1.61 goals/match	14 / 15
Expected goalsseason	1.29 xG/match42th	1.81 xG/match85th	1.45 xG/match	11 / 12
Expected goals allowedseason	1.86 xG/match82th	1.38 xG/match58th	1.36 xG/match	11 / 12
Shotsseason	12.2 shots/match45th	13.9 shots/match78th	13 shots/match	14 / 15
Shots allowedseason	17.9 shots/match92th	12.2 shots/match47th	12.2 shots/match	14 / 15
Shots on targetseason	4.36 shots/match32th	5.6 shots/match82th	4.66 shots/match	14 / 15
Shots on target allowedseason	7 shots/match92th	4.13 shots/match23th	4.53 shots/match	14 / 15
Possessionseason	49.6%55th	46.5%18th	49.4%	14 / 15
Cornersseason	4.14 corners/match15th	7.4 corners/match98th	4.73 corners/match	14 / 15
Corners allowedseason	7 corners/match95th	4.93 corners/match50th	4.93 corners/match	14 / 15
Cardsseason	3 cards/match82th	1.75 cards/match12th	2.45 cards/match	5 / 4
Foulsseason	9.79 fouls/match8th	11.7 fouls/match38th	12.1 fouls/match	14 / 15
Clean-sheet frequencyseason	7%13th	33%82th	20%	14 / 15
Scoring frequencyseason	71%23th	93%95th	79%	14 / 15

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

Metric	Home	Away	Competition	Samples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures	6.15 days—	6.96 days—	—	1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures	3 matches—	3 matches—	—	1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.