PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 24 May 2026, 01:30 UTCFull time

San Diego

2–4Full-time recap

Vancouver Whitecaps

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: San Diego's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Vancouver Whitecaps's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

San Diego's recent record differs from the season

moderate

San Diego's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Vancouver Whitecaps show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Vancouver Whitecaps's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match17.4 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against13.7 shots/match8.21 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for San Diego, Vancouver Whitecaps.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Rest days7 days7.04 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

San Diego98.3
Vancouver Whitecaps78.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

San Diego50.6
Vancouver Whitecaps98.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

San Diego20.5
Vancouver Whitecaps96.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

San Diego1.7
Vancouver Whitecaps98.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

San Diego50
Vancouver Whitecaps81.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 68%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

San Diego43.3
Vancouver Whitecaps70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

San Diego35.8
Vancouver Whitecaps91.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricSan DiegoVancouver Whitecaps
Goals scored2.6 goals/match5 obs.1.8 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed2 goals/match5 obs.1.4 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.59 xG/match5 obs.1.78 xG/match5 obs.
Shots14.2 shots/match5 obs.16.2 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target5.2 shots/match5 obs.6.4 shots/match5 obs.
Possession57.2%5 obs.55.6%5 obs.
Corners3.8 corners/match5 obs.3.8 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls10.2 fouls/match5 obs.14.4 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricSan DiegoVancouver Whitecaps
Goals scored1.7 goals/match10 obs.2 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed2.2 goals/match10 obs.1.1 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.39 xG/match10 obs.2.29 xG/match10 obs.
Shots12 shots/match10 obs.18.5 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target4.2 shots/match10 obs.7.1 shots/match10 obs.
Possession60%10 obs.53.7%10 obs.
Corners4.5 corners/match10 obs.5.5 corners/match10 obs.
Cards3.5 cards/match4 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls10.9 fouls/match10 obs.15.3 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

15 / 14 matches
MetricSan DiegoVancouver Whitecaps
Goals scored2 goals/match15 obs.2.43 goals/match14 obs.
Goals allowed1.8 goals/match15 obs.0.86 goals/match14 obs.
Expected goals1.45 xG/match12 obs.2.45 xG/match11 obs.
Shots11.5 shots/match15 obs.17.4 shots/match14 obs.
Shots on target4.6 shots/match15 obs.6.86 shots/match14 obs.
Possession61.6%15 obs.54.4%14 obs.
Corners4.67 corners/match15 obs.5.5 corners/match14 obs.
Cards2.88 cards/match8 obs.2.8 cards/match5 obs.
Fouls11.3 fouls/match15 obs.15.6 fouls/match14 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 6 matches
MetricSan DiegoVancouver Whitecaps
Goals scored2.56 goals/match9 obs.2.17 goals/match6 obs.
Goals allowed1.67 goals/match9 obs.1.33 goals/match6 obs.
Expected goals1.55 xG/match7 obs.1.78 xG/match5 obs.
Shots12.9 shots/match9 obs.16.2 shots/match6 obs.
Shots on target5.33 shots/match9 obs.6.67 shots/match6 obs.
Possession61.8%9 obs.55.7%6 obs.
Corners5.11 corners/match9 obs.4.33 corners/match6 obs.
Cards2.6 cards/match5 obs.3.67 cards/match3 obs.
Fouls11.2 fouls/match9 obs.14.2 fouls/match6 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason2 goals/match80th2.43 goals/match98th1.57 goals/match15 / 14
Goals allowedseason1.8 goals/match72th0.86 goals/match8th1.61 goals/match15 / 14
Expected goalsseason1.45 xG/match52th2.45 xG/match98th1.45 xG/match12 / 11
Expected goals allowedseason2.02 xG/match95th0.92 xG/match2th1.36 xG/match12 / 11
Shotsseason11.5 shots/match25th17.4 shots/match98th13 shots/match15 / 14
Shots allowedseason13.7 shots/match82th8.21 shots/match2th12.2 shots/match15 / 14
Shots on targetseason4.6 shots/match47th6.86 shots/match98th4.66 shots/match15 / 14
Shots on target allowedseason5.73 shots/match85th2.79 shots/match2th4.53 shots/match15 / 14
Possessionseason61.6%98th54.4%78th49.4%15 / 14
Cornersseason4.67 corners/match43th5.5 corners/match70th4.73 corners/match15 / 14
Corners allowedseason3.87 corners/match15th3.43 corners/match10th4.93 corners/match15 / 14
Cardsseason2.88 cards/match72th2.8 cards/match65th2.45 cards/match8 / 5
Foulsseason11.3 fouls/match28th15.6 fouls/match98th12.1 fouls/match15 / 14
Clean-sheet frequencyseason27%70th36%85th20%15 / 14
Scoring frequencyseason87%83th86%73th79%15 / 14

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7 days—7.04 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures3 matches—3 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsSan DiegoVancouver Whitecaps
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 May 2026, 05:30 UTC · analysis-v3