PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Shell Energy Stadium

Houston Dynamo 1–0 Vancouver Whitecaps · Major League Soccer

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Houston Dynamo won 1–0.

Shots
139
Shots on target
73
Expected goals
0.960.46
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Houston Dynamo beat Vancouver Whitecaps 1–0. Recorded in this match (Houston Dynamo – Vancouver Whitecaps): shots 13–9, shots on target 7–3, expected goals 0.96–0.46, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Vancouver Whitecaps's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vancouver Whitecaps's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2.31 goals/match1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Houston Dynamo, Vancouver Whitecaps.

2.96 days ▲Rest daysHouston Dynamo · Vancouver Whitecaps3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricHouston DynamoVancouver WhitecapsBaseline
Rest days2.96 days3 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Vancouver Whitecaps show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Vancouver Whitecaps's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHouston Dynamo · Vancouver Whitecaps17.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHouston DynamoVancouver WhitecapsBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match17.2 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against12.2 shots/match8.08 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots9 shotsHouston Dynamo 13 shots, Vancouver Whitecaps 9 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots3 shotsHouston Dynamo 7 shots, Vancouver Whitecaps 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.96 xG0.46 xGHouston Dynamo 0.96 xG, Vancouver Whitecaps 0.46 xG
  • Possession53%47%Houston Dynamo 53%, Vancouver Whitecaps 47%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersHouston Dynamo 4 corners, Vancouver Whitecaps 3 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls13 foulsHouston Dynamo 16 fouls, Vancouver Whitecaps 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card4 cardsHouston Dynamo 1 card, Vancouver Whitecaps 4 cards

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Houston Dynamo
2Draws
1Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps — Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer1–1
Houston Dynamo — Vancouver Whitecaps · Major League Soccer0–3
Houston Dynamo — Vancouver Whitecaps · Major League Soccer1–1
Vancouver Whitecaps — Houston Dynamo · Major League Soccer3–4
Houston Dynamo — Vancouver Whitecaps · Major League Soccer4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Houston Dynamo favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Vancouver Whitecaps in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Houston Dynamo13 matchesVancouver Whitecaps13 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲ 2.31 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲ 0.77 goals/match
1.09 xG/matchExpected goals11/10▲ 2.35 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots13/13▲ 17.2 shots/match
4.85 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲ 6.46 shots/match
42.8%Possession13/13● 55.1%
4.69 corners/matchCorners13/13● 5.62 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards6/42.75 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls13/1315.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHouston DynamoVancouver Whitecaps
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headHouston Dynamo — Vancouver Whitecaps
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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