PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 17 May 2026, 00:30 UTCFull timeShell Energy StadiumFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricHouston DynamoVancouver Whitecaps
Shots13 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals0.96 xG/match▲0.46 xG/match
Possession53%47%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Vancouver Whitecaps's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Houston Dynamo, Vancouver Whitecaps. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Vancouver Whitecaps's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vancouver Whitecaps's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.31 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2.31 goals/match1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Houston Dynamo, Vancouver Whitecaps.

2.96 days▲Rest daysHouston Dynamo · Vancouver Whitecaps3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricHouston DynamoVancouver WhitecapsBaseline
Rest days2.96 days3 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Vancouver Whitecaps show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Vancouver Whitecaps's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match▲ShotsHouston Dynamo · Vancouver Whitecaps17.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHouston DynamoVancouver WhitecapsBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match17.2 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against12.2 shots/match8.08 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Houston Dynamo favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Vancouver Whitecaps in 11 · 3 too close

1.38 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲2.31 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/13▲0.77 goals/match
1.09 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 11/10▲2.35 xG/match
1.19 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/10▲0.92 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲17.2 shots/match
12.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲8.08 shots/match
4.85 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/13▲6.46 shots/match
4.15 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/13▲2.77 shots/match
42.8%Possessionseason · 13/1355.1%
4.69 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/135.62 corners/match
4.69 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲3.54 corners/match
3 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/42.75 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1315.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/13▲38%
69%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Houston Dynamo5
Vancouver Whitecaps81.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Houston Dynamo50
Vancouver Whitecaps96.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Houston Dynamo52.2
Vancouver Whitecaps96.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Houston Dynamo91.7
Vancouver Whitecaps95
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Houston Dynamo52.5
Vancouver Whitecaps83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 65%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Houston Dynamo40
Vancouver Whitecaps73.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Houston Dynamo45.4
Vancouver Whitecaps91.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
0.72 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.79 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲16 shots/match
5.4 shots/matchShots on target5/55.6 shots/match
45.6%Possession5/555.4%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
—Cards1/1—
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/516.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
1.08 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲2.35 xG/match
13.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲18 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.7 shots/match
43.6%Possession10/1054.1%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards3/1—
10.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1016.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲2.31 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲0.77 goals/match
1.09 xG/matchExpected goals11/10▲2.35 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots13/13▲17.2 shots/match
4.85 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲6.46 shots/match
42.8%Possession13/1355.1%
4.69 corners/matchCorners13/135.62 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards6/42.75 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls13/1315.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 5 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/5▲1.8 goals/match
0.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/51.2 goals/match
0.83 xG/matchExpected goals5/4▲1.36 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots7/5▲15.2 shots/match
4.43 shots/matchShots on target7/5▲5.6 shots/match
41.1%Possession7/557.6%
5.29 corners/matchCorners7/54.4 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/2—
10 fouls/matchFouls7/514.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsHouston DynamoVancouver Whitecaps
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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