PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Thu, 14 May 2026, 01:30 UTCFull timeAmerica First FieldFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal Salt LakeHouston Dynamo
Shots9 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.64 xG/match0.87 xG/match▲
Possession53%47%
Corners4 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Houston Dynamo. A second useful context is: Real Salt Lake's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Houston Dynamo.

4.04 days▲Rest daysReal Salt Lake · Houston Dynamo3.02 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricReal Salt LakeHouston DynamoBaseline
Rest days4.04 days3.02 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Real Salt Lake's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Real Salt Lake's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.92 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.92 goals/match1.64 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Salt Lake show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Real Salt Lake's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.7 shots/match▲ShotsReal Salt Lake · Houston Dynamo13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal Salt LakeHouston DynamoBaseline
Shots15.7 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against12.7 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Real Salt Lake favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Houston Dynamo in 3 · 5 too close

1.92 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 12/121.42 goals/match
1.42 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 12/121.83 goals/match
1.86 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 9/101.11 xG/match
1.35 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 9/10▲1.26 xG/match
15.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 12/1213.3 shots/match
12.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/1212.4 shots/match
6.17 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 12/124.67 shots/match
4.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/12▲4.25 shots/match
50.6%Possessionseason · 12/1242%
4.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/124.75 corners/match
4.92 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/124.83 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/53.4 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1210.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/12▲25%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1267%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Salt Lake61.7
Houston Dynamo5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Salt Lake85.6
Houston Dynamo46.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Salt Lake50.6
Houston Dynamo50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Salt Lake91.7
Houston Dynamo95
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Salt Lake60
Houston Dynamo51.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 67%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Salt Lake21.7
Houston Dynamo48.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Salt Lake63
Houston Dynamo42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.35 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.7 xG/match
13.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511.4 shots/match
6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match
58%Possession5/540.8%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
—Cards0/1—
13 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
1.86 xG/match▲Expected goals9/101.11 xG/match
16.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.7 shots/match
6.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.9 shots/match
52.7%Possession10/1043.2%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
—Cards2/33.67 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
1.92 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.42 goals/match
1.42 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.83 goals/match
1.86 xG/match▲Expected goals9/101.11 xG/match
15.7 shots/match▲Shots12/1213.3 shots/match
6.17 shots/match▲Shots on target12/124.67 shots/match
50.6%Possession12/1242%
4.5 corners/matchCorners12/124.75 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards4/53.4 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 6 matches
2.29 goals/match▲Goals scored7/61.67 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/62.67 goals/match
2 xG/match▲Expected goals6/61.31 xG/match
17.4 shots/match▲Shots7/614.3 shots/match
7.14 shots/match▲Shots on target7/65.33 shots/match
50.3%Possession7/644.8%
4.57 corners/matchCorners7/64 corners/match
—Cards1/1—
12.3 fouls/matchFouls7/611.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.02 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 14 May 2026, 05:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal Salt LakeHouston Dynamo
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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