PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 24 May 2026, 01:30 UTCFull time

Colorado Rapids

1–2Full-time recap

FC Dallas

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Colorado Rapids's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Colorado Rapids's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Colorado Rapids's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Colorado Rapids's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.67 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Colorado Rapids have a visible home split

moderate

Colorado Rapids's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots15 shots/match10.9 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Colorado Rapids show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Colorado Rapids's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match12 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against12.2 shots/match10.1 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Colorado Rapids85
FC Dallas8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Colorado Rapids37.2
FC Dallas57.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Colorado Rapids51.1
FC Dallas75.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Colorado Rapids5
FC Dallas65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Colorado Rapids94.2
FC Dallas58.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 67%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Colorado Rapids51.7
FC Dallas25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Colorado Rapids47.1
FC Dallas50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricColorado RapidsFC Dallas
Goals scored0.6 goals/match5 obs.2.4 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1.2 goals/match5 obs.1.4 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals0.77 xG/match5 obs.1.88 xG/match5 obs.
Shots8.2 shots/match5 obs.10.2 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target2.8 shots/match5 obs.4.8 shots/match5 obs.
Possession55%5 obs.39.6%5 obs.
Corners6.2 corners/match5 obs.4 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—2 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls14 fouls/match5 obs.13.8 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricColorado RapidsFC Dallas
Goals scored1.4 goals/match10 obs.2 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.7 goals/match10 obs.1.3 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.06 xG/match10 obs.1.56 xG/match10 obs.
Shots9.5 shots/match10 obs.11.5 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target3.5 shots/match10 obs.4.7 shots/match10 obs.
Possession56.1%10 obs.42.6%10 obs.
Corners4.6 corners/match10 obs.4.3 corners/match10 obs.
Cards4.75 cards/match4 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls13 fouls/match10 obs.13.2 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
MetricColorado RapidsFC Dallas
Goals scored1.67 goals/match15 obs.2 goals/match15 obs.
Goals allowed1.6 goals/match15 obs.1.47 goals/match15 obs.
Expected goals1.32 xG/match12 obs.1.64 xG/match12 obs.
Shots10.9 shots/match15 obs.12 shots/match15 obs.
Shots on target4.33 shots/match15 obs.4.73 shots/match15 obs.
Possession55.6%15 obs.43.1%15 obs.
Corners4.8 corners/match15 obs.4.4 corners/match15 obs.
Cards3.57 cards/match7 obs.2.2 cards/match5 obs.
Fouls14.1 fouls/match15 obs.13.7 fouls/match15 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
MetricColorado RapidsFC Dallas
Goals scored2.5 goals/match6 obs.2 goals/match6 obs.
Goals allowed1.5 goals/match6 obs.1 goals/match6 obs.
Expected goals1.7 xG/match4 obs.1.64 xG/match5 obs.
Shots15 shots/match6 obs.11.8 shots/match6 obs.
Shots on target5.83 shots/match6 obs.5.83 shots/match6 obs.
Possession56.7%6 obs.42%6 obs.
Corners5.83 corners/match6 obs.4.67 corners/match6 obs.
Cards2.8 cards/match5 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls13 fouls/match6 obs.12.3 fouls/match6 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.67 goals/match65th2 goals/match80th1.57 goals/match15 / 15
Goals allowedseason1.6 goals/match48th1.47 goals/match38th1.61 goals/match15 / 15
Expected goalsseason1.32 xG/match45th1.64 xG/match78th1.45 xG/match12 / 12
Expected goals allowedseason1.48 xG/match75th1.23 xG/match32th1.36 xG/match12 / 12
Shotsseason10.9 shots/match18th12 shots/match38th13 shots/match15 / 15
Shots allowedseason12.2 shots/match47th10.1 shots/match12th12.2 shots/match15 / 15
Shots on targetseason4.33 shots/match28th4.73 shots/match55th4.66 shots/match15 / 15
Shots on target allowedseason4.6 shots/match52th4.13 shots/match23th4.53 shots/match15 / 15
Possessionseason55.6%85th43.1%8th49.4%15 / 15
Cornersseason4.8 corners/match52th4.4 corners/match25th4.73 corners/match15 / 15
Corners allowedseason4.73 corners/match42th5.73 corners/match78th4.93 corners/match15 / 15
Cardsseason3.57 cards/match98th2.2 cards/match35th2.45 cards/match7 / 5
Foulsseason14.1 fouls/match90th13.7 fouls/match82th12.1 fouls/match15 / 15
Clean-sheet frequencyseason20%48th20%48th20%15 / 15
Scoring frequencyseason73%35th80%57th79%15 / 15

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7 days—6.96 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures3 matches—2 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsColorado RapidsFC Dallas
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 May 2026, 05:30 UTC · analysis-v3