Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 17 May 2026, 01:30 UTCFull timeSnapdragon StadiumFull-time recap

San Diego

LLDDW

3–3Full-time recap

FC Cincinnati

DWWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	San Diego	FC Cincinnati
Shots	16 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.77 xG/match▲	1.41 xG/match
Possession	63%	37%
Corners	7 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	9 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for San Diego, FC Cincinnati. A second useful context is: San Diego's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for San Diego, FC Cincinnati.

3 days▲Rest daysSan Diego · FC Cincinnati3.08 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	San Diego	FC Cincinnati	Baseline
Rest days	3 days	3.08 days	—
Matches last 14 days	3 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

San Diego's recent record differs from the season

weak

San Diego's last-five shots average is above their season average.

14.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.2 shots/match	11.6 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

San Diego have recorded the higher season possession share.

62.1%▲PossessionSan Diego · FC Cincinnati48.9%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	San Diego	FC Cincinnati	Baseline
Possession	62.1%	48.9%	48.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

San Diego favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · FC Cincinnati in 5 · 4 too close

2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/14▲2.14 goals/match

1.64 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/142.5 goals/match

1.5 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 11/12▲1.71 xG/match

1.89 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/12▲1.72 xG/match

11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/14▲12.9 shots/match

13.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1416.1 shots/match

4.71 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/14▲5.29 shots/match

5.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/145.71 shots/match

62.1%Possessionseason · 14/1448.9%

4.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/144.57 corners/match

3.86 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/144.71 corners/match

2.71 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/72.86 cards/match

11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1412.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/1414%

86%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1486%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

San Diego98.3

FC Cincinnati51.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

San Diego52.8

FC Cincinnati71.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

San Diego31.7

FC Cincinnati12.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

San Diego1.7

FC Cincinnati51.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

San Diego43.4

FC Cincinnati61.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 75%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

San Diego51.7

FC Cincinnati30

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

San Diego38.8

FC Cincinnati52.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match

1.69 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.85 xG/match

14.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511.2 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match

59.8%Possession5/546%

4.6 corners/matchCorners5/52.4 corners/match

—Cards0/1—

9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.7 goals/match

2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.7 goals/match

1.45 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.87 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲13 shots/match

4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.6 shots/match

60.4%Possession10/1047.5%

5 corners/matchCorners10/103.7 corners/match

3.5 cards/matchCards4/44 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches

2 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲2.14 goals/match

1.64 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/142.5 goals/match

1.5 xG/matchExpected goals11/12▲1.71 xG/match

11.6 shots/matchShots14/14▲12.9 shots/match

4.71 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲5.29 shots/match

62.1%Possession14/1448.9%

4.86 corners/matchCorners14/144.57 corners/match

2.71 cards/matchCards7/72.86 cards/match

11.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches

2.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/82 goals/match

1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82.88 goals/match

1.65 xG/match▲Expected goals6/71.41 xG/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shots8/811.9 shots/match

5.63 shots/matchShots on target8/85.5 shots/match

62.8%Possession8/847.3%

5.5 corners/matchCorners8/84.5 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCards4/52.8 cards/match

10.9 fouls/matchFouls8/811.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.08 days

3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples14 / 14home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 05:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Recent scheduling adds useful context

San Diego's recent record differs from the season

The teams have contrasting possession records

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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