PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Wed, 13 May 2026, 23:30 UTCFull timeTQL StadiumFull-time recap
3–5Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC CincinnatiInter Miami
Shots10 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.76 xG/match2.19 xG/match▲
Possession47%53%
Corners1 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls18 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Inter Miami's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

FC Cincinnati's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.08 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match2.08 goals/match1.64 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Inter Miami show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Inter Miami's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsFC Cincinnati · Inter Miami15.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC CincinnatiInter MiamiBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match15.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against16.2 shots/match11.7 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for FC Cincinnati.

4 days▲Rest daysFC Cincinnati · Inter Miami4.27 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricFC CincinnatiInter MiamiBaseline
Rest days4 days4.27 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Cincinnati favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Inter Miami in 9 · 5 too close

2.08 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲2.38 goals/match
2.46 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.85 goals/match
1.73 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 11/10▲2.08 xG/match
1.72 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/10▲1.34 xG/match
13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲15.8 shots/match
16.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲11.7 shots/match
5.23 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/13▲6.54 shots/match
5.77 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/13▲4.69 shots/match
49.8%Possessionseason · 13/1358.2%
4.77 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/135.92 corners/match
4.54 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲3.31 corners/match
2.86 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/43 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1312.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
15%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/1315%
85%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1385%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Cincinnati55
Inter Miami95
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Cincinnati72.8
Inter Miami95
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Cincinnati12.8
Inter Miami46.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Cincinnati51.7
Inter Miami65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Cincinnati70
Inter Miami75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 65%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Cincinnati53.3
Inter Miami85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Cincinnati62.1
Inter Miami85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲3 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲2 goals/match
1.86 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.29 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots5/5▲18.2 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲8 shots/match
47.6%Possession5/559.2%
2.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
—Cards1/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/102.5 goals/match
3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.84 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲2.08 xG/match
13.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲17.1 shots/match
5.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.9 shots/match
48.2%Possession10/1056.3%
3.8 corners/matchCorners10/106.5 corners/match
3.8 cards/matchCards5/1—
13.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
2.08 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲2.38 goals/match
2.46 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.85 goals/match
1.73 xG/matchExpected goals11/10▲2.08 xG/match
13.3 shots/matchShots13/13▲15.8 shots/match
5.23 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲6.54 shots/match
49.8%Possession13/1358.2%
4.77 corners/matchCorners13/135.92 corners/match
2.86 cards/matchCards7/43 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 9 matches
2.33 goals/matchGoals scored6/9▲2.56 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed6/9▲1.67 goals/match
2.11 xG/match▲Expected goals5/61.52 xG/match
14.3 shots/match▲Shots6/913.3 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target6/9▲5.56 shots/match
51.2%Possession6/955.8%
4.67 corners/matchCorners6/94.56 corners/match
—Cards2/43 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls6/913 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.27 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 14 May 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFC CincinnatiInter Miami
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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