PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Wed, 13 May 2026, 23:30 UTCFull timeGillette StadiumFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNew England RevolutionNashville SC
Shots8 shots/match8 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.47 xG/match▲0.39 xG/match
Possession54%46%
Corners6 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: New England Revolution's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for New England Revolution, Nashville SC. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

New England Revolution's recent record differs from the season

moderate

New England Revolution's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.67 goals/match1.64 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for New England Revolution, Nashville SC.

4 days▲Rest daysNew England Revolution · Nashville SC3.93 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNew England RevolutionNashville SCBaseline
Rest days4 days3.93 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

New England Revolution show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

New England Revolution's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.75 shots/match▲ShotsNew England Revolution · Nashville SC12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNew England RevolutionNashville SCBaseline
Shots9.75 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against13.3 shots/match9.75 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0New England Revolution
0Draws
1Nashville SC
Nashville SC — New England Revolution · Major League Soccer4–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

New England Revolution favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Nashville SC in 10 · 3 too close

1.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/12▲2.17 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/12▲0.67 goals/match
1.19 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 10/9▲1.29 xG/match
1.35 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 10/9▲1.06 xG/match
9.75 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/12▲12.1 shots/match
13.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/12▲9.75 shots/match
3.83 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/12▲5.42 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/12▲2.75 shots/match
48.6%Possessionseason · 12/1255.3%
3.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/124.58 corners/match
5.17 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/12▲3.92 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/42 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1212.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/12▲50%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1275%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

New England Revolution48.3
Nashville SC78.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

New England Revolution21.1
Nashville SC68.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

New England Revolution42.8
Nashville SC92.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

New England Revolution11.7
Nashville SC25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

New England Revolution45
Nashville SC40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

New England Revolution5
Nashville SC31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

New England Revolution10
Nashville SC50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
1.09 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.21 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.2 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match
51.6%Possession5/556.2%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
—Cards0/1—
8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
1.19 xG/matchExpected goals10/9▲1.29 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.6 shots/match
50.3%Possession10/1055.5%
3.2 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match
—Cards1/2—
10.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
1.67 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲2.17 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲0.67 goals/match
1.19 xG/matchExpected goals10/9▲1.29 xG/match
9.75 shots/matchShots12/12▲12.1 shots/match
3.83 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲5.42 shots/match
48.6%Possession12/1255.3%
3.33 corners/matchCorners12/124.58 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards3/42 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.14 goals/match
0.86 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.29 goals/match
1.16 xG/match▲Expected goals7/60.81 xG/match
11 shots/match▲Shots7/79.57 shots/match
4.14 shots/matchShots on target7/74 shots/match
52.3%Possession7/751%
3.57 corners/matchCorners7/74 corners/match
—Cards1/1—
10.7 fouls/matchFouls7/711.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.93 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 14 May 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNew England RevolutionNashville SC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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