PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Wed, 13 May 2026, 23:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
4–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricOrlando City SCPhiladelphia Union
Shots12 shots/match26 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Expected goals2.87 xG/match▲1.62 xG/match
Possession55%45%
Corners1 corners/match10 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Orlando City SC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Philadelphia Union's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Orlando City SC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Orlando City SC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.54 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match1.54 goals/match1.64 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Philadelphia Union show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Philadelphia Union's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsOrlando City SC · Philadelphia Union14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricOrlando City SCPhiladelphia UnionBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against18.8 shots/match9.15 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Orlando City SC have a visible home split

moderate

Orlando City SC's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Orlando City SC favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Philadelphia Union in 7 · 5 too close

1.54 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 13/131 goals/match
2.85 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.77 goals/match
1.25 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 10/101.28 xG/match
1.86 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 10/10▲1.52 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲14.6 shots/match
18.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲9.15 shots/match
4.46 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 13/133.85 shots/match
7.15 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/13▲3.62 shots/match
45.2%Possessionseason · 13/1347.4%
3.46 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/136.15 corners/match
7.54 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲2.85 corners/match
3 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/43.5 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1315.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/13▲15%
62%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1362%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Orlando City SC15
Philadelphia Union35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Orlando City SC34.4
Philadelphia Union33.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Orlando City SC2.2
Philadelphia Union71.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Orlando City SC35
Philadelphia Union88.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Orlando City SC53.4
Philadelphia Union95.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 62%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Orlando City SC8.3
Philadelphia Union91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Orlando City SC23.3
Philadelphia Union70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1.43 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.2 xG/match
10.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.6 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
48.2%Possession5/541.8%
3.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
—Cards0/1—
11 fouls/matchFouls5/515 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.9 goals/match
1.25 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.28 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.9 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.9 shots/match
47.1%Possession10/1046.8%
3.6 corners/matchCorners10/105.9 corners/match
—Cards0/1—
11 fouls/matchFouls10/1015 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1.54 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131 goals/match
2.85 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.77 goals/match
1.25 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.28 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots13/13▲14.6 shots/match
4.46 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.85 shots/match
45.2%Possession13/1347.4%
3.46 corners/matchCorners13/136.15 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards3/43.5 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls13/1315.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 8 matches
2.17 goals/match▲Goals scored6/81.38 goals/match
2 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/82.25 goals/match
1.81 xG/match▲Expected goals4/71.3 xG/match
13.7 shots/matchShots6/8▲14.5 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target6/83.88 shots/match
46.7%Possession6/845.5%
2.83 corners/matchCorners6/85.13 corners/match
—Cards2/2—
11.7 fouls/matchFouls6/816.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 14 May 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsOrlando City SCPhiladelphia Union
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match