PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 16 May 2026, 23:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricOrlando City SCAtlanta United FC
Shots7 shots/match20 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.19 xG/match1.43 xG/match▲
Possession45%55%
Corners4 corners/match10 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atlanta United FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Orlando City SC. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Atlanta United FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlanta United FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.08 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.08 goals/match1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Orlando City SC.

3 days▲Rest daysOrlando City SC · Atlanta United FC7 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricOrlando City SCAtlanta United FCBaseline
Rest days3 days7 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Atlanta United FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Atlanta United FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.6 shots/match▲ShotsOrlando City SC · Atlanta United FC12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricOrlando City SCAtlanta United FCBaseline
Shots10.6 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against18.9 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Orlando City SC favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Atlanta United FC in 7 · 6 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/131.08 goals/match
2.71 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/13▲1.62 goals/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 11/101.28 xG/match
1.82 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/10▲1.34 xG/match
10.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/13▲12.9 shots/match
18.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/13▲11.1 shots/match
4.36 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/134.15 shots/match
7 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/13▲4.15 shots/match
45.1%Possessionseason · 14/1353.8%
3.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/135.38 corners/match
7.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/13▲5 corners/match
3 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/42.5 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1311.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/13▲8%
64%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1362%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Orlando City SC15
Atlanta United FC75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Orlando City SC30
Atlanta United FC29.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Orlando City SC3.4
Atlanta United FC66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Orlando City SC31.7
Atlanta United FC35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Orlando City SC50.8
Atlanta United FC44.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 61%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Orlando City SC1.7
Atlanta United FC65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Orlando City SC17.5
Atlanta United FC44.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.48 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.32 xG/match
9.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.8 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.8 shots/match
48.6%Possession5/551.6%
3.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
—Cards0/1—
10 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
1.13 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.28 xG/match
10.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.6 shots/match
4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/104.5 shots/match
48.1%Possession10/1053.8%
3.7 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match
—Cards0/1—
10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 13 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored14/131.08 goals/match
2.71 goals/matchGoals allowed14/13▲1.62 goals/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goals11/101.28 xG/match
10.6 shots/matchShots14/13▲12.9 shots/match
4.36 shots/matchShots on target14/134.15 shots/match
45.1%Possession14/1353.8%
3.5 corners/matchCorners14/135.38 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards3/42.5 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls14/1311.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored7/50.6 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed7/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.68 xG/match▲Expected goals5/31.1 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots7/512.2 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target7/53.4 shots/match
46.4%Possession7/551.8%
3 corners/matchCorners7/56.8 corners/match
—Cards2/2—
11 fouls/matchFouls7/513.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsOrlando City SCAtlanta United FC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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