Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 16 May 2026, 23:30 UTCFull timeBank of America StadiumFull-time recap

Charlotte

LLLDL

3–1Full-time recap

Toronto FC

DDLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Charlotte	Toronto FC
Shots	17 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	2 xG/match▲	0.82 xG/match
Possession	45%	55%
Corners	7 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	13 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Charlotte. A second useful context is: Charlotte's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Charlotte.

3.01 days▲Rest daysCharlotte · Toronto FC7.27 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Charlotte	Toronto FC	Baseline
Rest days	3.01 days	7.27 days	—
Matches last 14 days	3 matches	1 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Charlotte have a visible home split

moderate

Charlotte's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	12.6 shots/match	10.6 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Charlotte show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Charlotte's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.6 shots/match▲ShotsCharlotte · Toronto FC11.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Charlotte	Toronto FC	Baseline
Shots	10.6 shots/match	11.7 shots/match	12.8 shots/match
Shots against	13.6 shots/match	11.2 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Charlotte favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Toronto FC in 6 · 5 too close

1.64 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/131.62 goals/match

1.64 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/132.08 goals/match

1.46 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 11/111.16 xG/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.11 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/13▲11.7 shots/match

13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/13▲11.2 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/134.62 shots/match

5.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/13▲4.54 shots/match

47.5%Possessionseason · 14/1347.8%

4.79 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/135.62 corners/match

4.43 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/135.85 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/42 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1312.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

7%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/13▲8%

71%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/13▲92%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Charlotte31.7

Toronto FC35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Charlotte37.2

Toronto FC42.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Charlotte27.8

Toronto FC50.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Charlotte25

Toronto FC41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Charlotte25.9

Toronto FC47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 64%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Charlotte46.7

Toronto FC73.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Charlotte29.2

Toronto FC55.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match

1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.6 goals/match

1.27 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.99 xG/match

9.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.2 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.2 shots/match

44.2%Possession5/551.6%

5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.8 goals/match

1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match

1.51 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.21 xG/match

10.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.4 shots/match

4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match

46.2%Possession10/1048.3%

4.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match

—Cards1/2—

10 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 13 matches

1.64 goals/matchGoals scored14/131.62 goals/match

1.64 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/132.08 goals/match

1.46 xG/match▲Expected goals11/111.16 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShots14/13▲11.7 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on target14/134.62 shots/match

47.5%Possession14/1347.8%

4.79 corners/matchCorners14/135.62 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFouls14/1312.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 4 matches

2.13 goals/match▲Goals scored8/41 goals/match

1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/42.25 goals/match

1.65 xG/matchExpected goals7/2—

12.6 shots/match▲Shots8/49.75 shots/match

5.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/43.75 shots/match

50.6%Possession8/448.3%

6.13 corners/matchCorners8/44.5 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

9.75 fouls/matchFouls8/412.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.01 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.27 days

3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples14 / 13home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Recent scheduling adds useful context

Charlotte have a visible home split

Charlotte show a distinct attacking-volume record

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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