Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 24 May 2026, 00:30 UTCFull timeSoldier FieldFull-time recap

Chicago Fire

WLLWW

2–1Full-time recap

Toronto FC

DLDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Chicago Fire	Toronto FC
Shots	15 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.77 xG/match▲	1.4 xG/match
Possession	53%	47%
Corners	3 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	4 cards/match	4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Toronto FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Chicago Fire's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Toronto FC's recent record differs from the season

weak

Toronto FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.57 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.57 goals/match	1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Chicago Fire have a visible home split

moderate

Chicago Fire's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	17.4 shots/match	14.8 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Chicago Fire favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Toronto FC in 1 · 6 too close

1.93 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/141.57 goals/match

1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/142.07 goals/match

2.02 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 11/121.18 xG/match

1.33 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/12▲1.16 xG/match

14.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 14/1411.6 shots/match

11.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/1411.5 shots/match

5.21 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/144.57 shots/match

4.36 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/144.64 shots/match

53.1%Possessionseason · 14/1447.7%

4.57 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/145.5 corners/match

5.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/145.64 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/42 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1412.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

43%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/147%

93%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1493%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chicago Fire68.3

Toronto FC35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chicago Fire78.3

Toronto FC40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chicago Fire71.1

Toronto FC45.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chicago Fire68.3

Toronto FC38.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chicago Fire55

Toronto FC43.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 64%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chicago Fire33.3

Toronto FC70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chicago Fire66.2

Toronto FC51.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match

1.96 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.99 xG/match

17.6 shots/match▲Shots5/511 shots/match

6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match

54.6%Possession5/548.2%

6 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match

—Cards1/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.8 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.2 goals/match

2.03 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.25 xG/match

16.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.3 shots/match

5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.5 shots/match

52.7%Possession10/1049.8%

4.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match

—Cards1/2—

12.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1013 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 14 matches

1.93 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.57 goals/match

1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/142.07 goals/match

2.02 xG/match▲Expected goals11/121.18 xG/match

14.8 shots/match▲Shots14/1411.6 shots/match

5.21 shots/match▲Shots on target14/144.57 shots/match

53.1%Possession14/1447.7%

4.57 corners/matchCorners14/145.5 corners/match

2.25 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match

12.8 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 5 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored8/51 goals/match

1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/52.2 goals/match

2.07 xG/match▲Expected goals7/30.97 xG/match

17.4 shots/match▲Shots8/510 shots/match

5.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/53.8 shots/match

54.8%Possession8/548%

5.25 corners/matchCorners8/54.4 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

12.6 fouls/matchFouls8/512.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.04 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples14 / 14home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 May 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Toronto FC's recent record differs from the season

Chicago Fire have a visible home split

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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