PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Soldier Field

Chicago Fire 2–1 Toronto FC · Major League Soccer

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Chicago Fire won 2–1.

Shots
1511
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
1.771.4
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Chicago Fire beat Toronto FC 2–1. Recorded in this match (Chicago Fire – Toronto FC): shots 15–11, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 1.77–1.4, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Toronto FC's recent record differs from the season

weak

Toronto FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.57 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.57 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Chicago Fire have a visible home split

moderate

Chicago Fire's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.4 shots/match14.8 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots11 shotsChicago Fire 15 shots, Toronto FC 11 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsChicago Fire 6 shots, Toronto FC 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.77 xG1.4 xGChicago Fire 1.77 xG, Toronto FC 1.4 xG
  • Possession53%47%Chicago Fire 53%, Toronto FC 47%
  • Corners3 corners4 cornersChicago Fire 3 corners, Toronto FC 4 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls12 foulsChicago Fire 12 fouls, Toronto FC 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards4 cardsChicago Fire 4 cards, Toronto FC 4 cards

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Chicago Fire
2Draws
0Toronto FC
Chicago Fire — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer2–2
Toronto FC — Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer1–2
Chicago Fire — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer1–1
Toronto FC — Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer1–4
Chicago Fire — Toronto FC · Major League Soccer1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Chicago Fire favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Toronto FC in 1 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Chicago Fire14 matchesToronto FC14 matches
1.93 goals/match ▲Goals scored14/141.57 goals/match
1.14 goals/match ▲Goals allowed14/142.07 goals/match
2.02 xG/match ▲Expected goals11/121.18 xG/match
14.8 shots/match ▲Shots14/1411.6 shots/match
5.21 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/144.57 shots/match
53.1% ●Possession14/1447.7%
4.57 corners/matchCorners14/14● 5.5 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/42 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 May 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Major League Soccer

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsChicago FireToronto FC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
Head-to-headChicago Fire — Toronto FC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required