PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 24 May 2026, 00:30 UTCFull timeGeodis ParkFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNashville SCNew York City FC
Shots12 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals0.75 xG/match1.36 xG/match▲
Possession48%52%
Corners6 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: New York City FC's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: New York City FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

New York City FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

New York City FC's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8 shots/match11.4 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

New York City FC have a visible away split

moderate

New York City FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.57 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.57 shots/match11.4 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nashville SC, New York City FC.

6.02 days▲Rest daysNashville SC · New York City FC7.04 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNashville SCNew York City FCBaseline
Rest days6.02 days7.04 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nashville SC favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · New York City FC in 0 · 5 too close

2.21 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/151.67 goals/match
0.79 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/151.4 goals/match
1.19 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 11/121.1 xG/match
1.18 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 11/121.48 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/1511.4 shots/match
10.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1512.1 shots/match
5.36 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/155 shots/match
3.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/154.8 shots/match
54.5%Possessionseason · 14/1556.8%
4.57 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/153.53 corners/match
4.29 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/155.07 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/42.5 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1511.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
43%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/1520%
79%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1580%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nashville SC81.7
New York City FC88.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nashville SC63.9
New York City FC50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nashville SC92.8
New York City FC56.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nashville SC21.7
New York City FC8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nashville SC35
New York City FC47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nashville SC33.3
New York City FC1.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nashville SC46.2
New York City FC32.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51 goals/match
0.91 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲0.98 xG/match
9.8 shots/match▲Shots5/58 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
54.8%Possession5/555.2%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match
—Cards1/0—
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
1.19 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.02 xG/match
11.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.1 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.7 shots/match
55.4%Possession10/1057.6%
5 corners/matchCorners10/103.1 corners/match
—Cards1/1—
11.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

14 / 15 matches
2.21 goals/match▲Goals scored14/151.67 goals/match
0.79 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/151.4 goals/match
1.19 xG/match▲Expected goals11/121.1 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots14/1511.4 shots/match
5.36 shots/match▲Shots on target14/155 shots/match
54.5%Possession14/1556.8%
4.57 corners/matchCorners14/153.53 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/42.5 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls14/1511.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches
3.29 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.86 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.14 goals/match
1.64 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.87 xG/match
13.7 shots/match▲Shots7/78.57 shots/match
6.71 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.29 shots/match
58%Possession7/757.1%
5.14 corners/matchCorners7/72.57 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards3/33.33 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls7/713.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.02 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.04 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 May 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNashville SCNew York City FC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match