PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 24 May 2026, 00:30 UTCFull time

Sporting Kansas City

1–2Full-time recap

New York Red Bulls

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sporting Kansas City's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: New York Red Bulls's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples14 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Sporting Kansas City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sporting Kansas City's last-five shots average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots14.2 shots/match9.29 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

New York Red Bulls show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

New York Red Bulls's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots9.29 shots/match13.5 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against16.4 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Sporting Kansas City.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Rest days7 days7.04 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sporting Kansas City11.7
New York Red Bulls65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sporting Kansas City5.6
New York Red Bulls66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sporting Kansas City9.5
New York Red Bulls22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sporting Kansas City18.3
New York Red Bulls45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sporting Kansas City43.3
New York Red Bulls35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 61%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sporting Kansas City8.3
New York Red Bulls95
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sporting Kansas City25
New York Red Bulls71.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricSporting Kansas CityNew York Red Bulls
Goals scored1.4 goals/match5 obs.1.8 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed2.2 goals/match5 obs.1.4 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.39 xG/match5 obs.1.62 xG/match5 obs.
Shots14.2 shots/match5 obs.10.6 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target6.6 shots/match5 obs.3.8 shots/match5 obs.
Possession45.6%5 obs.41.6%5 obs.
Corners5.2 corners/match5 obs.4.8 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—0 obs.
Fouls15 fouls/match5 obs.12.6 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricSporting Kansas CityNew York Red Bulls
Goals scored1 goals/match10 obs.2 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed2.9 goals/match10 obs.2.1 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals0.95 xG/match10 obs.1.4 xG/match10 obs.
Shots10.3 shots/match10 obs.11.6 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target4.4 shots/match10 obs.3.9 shots/match10 obs.
Possession45.7%10 obs.47.6%10 obs.
Corners4 corners/match10 obs.4.6 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—0 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls14.4 fouls/match10 obs.13 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

14 / 15 matches
MetricSporting Kansas CityNew York Red Bulls
Goals scored1 goals/match14 obs.1.67 goals/match15 obs.
Goals allowed2.57 goals/match14 obs.2.13 goals/match15 obs.
Expected goals0.93 xG/match11 obs.1.55 xG/match12 obs.
Shots9.29 shots/match14 obs.13.5 shots/match15 obs.
Shots on target4 shots/match14 obs.5.07 shots/match15 obs.
Possession44.8%14 obs.52.2%15 obs.
Corners3.71 corners/match14 obs.6.07 corners/match15 obs.
Cards1.33 cards/match3 obs.1.8 cards/match5 obs.
Fouls13.4 fouls/match14 obs.12.5 fouls/match15 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 8 matches
MetricSporting Kansas CityNew York Red Bulls
Goals scored1.29 goals/match7 obs.1.5 goals/match8 obs.
Goals allowed2 goals/match7 obs.2.25 goals/match8 obs.
Expected goals1.31 xG/match5 obs.1.4 xG/match7 obs.
Shots10.1 shots/match7 obs.14.3 shots/match8 obs.
Shots on target5.14 shots/match7 obs.5.75 shots/match8 obs.
Possession44.4%7 obs.51.8%8 obs.
Corners4 corners/match7 obs.6.13 corners/match8 obs.
Cards—2 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls11.4 fouls/match7 obs.12.6 fouls/match8 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1 goals/match3th1.67 goals/match65th1.57 goals/match14 / 15
Goals allowedseason2.57 goals/match95th2.13 goals/match85th1.61 goals/match14 / 15
Expected goalsseason0.93 xG/match2th1.55 xG/match65th1.45 xG/match11 / 12
Expected goals allowedseason1.98 xG/match88th2.01 xG/match92th1.36 xG/match11 / 12
Shotsseason9.29 shots/match2th13.5 shots/match67th13 shots/match14 / 15
Shots allowedseason16.4 shots/match88th12.9 shots/match68th12.2 shots/match14 / 15
Shots on targetseason4 shots/match12th5.07 shots/match68th4.66 shots/match14 / 15
Shots on target allowedseason5.79 shots/match88th5.67 shots/match80th4.53 shots/match14 / 15
Possessionseason44.8%12th52.2%65th49.4%14 / 15
Cornersseason3.71 corners/match8th6.07 corners/match95th4.73 corners/match14 / 15
Corners allowedseason6 corners/match85th4.6 corners/match35th4.93 corners/match14 / 15
Cardsseason1.33 cards/match8th1.8 cards/match15th2.45 cards/match3 / 5
Foulsseason13.4 fouls/match78th12.5 fouls/match55th12.1 fouls/match14 / 15
Clean-sheet frequencyseason0%3th7%8th20%14 / 15
Scoring frequencyseason64%7th80%57th79%14 / 15

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7 days—7.04 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures3 matches—2 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsSporting Kansas CityNew York Red Bulls
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 May 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v3