PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 23 May 2026, 23:30 UTCFull timeTQL StadiumFull-time recap
6–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC CincinnatiOrlando City SC
Shots22 shots/match▲14 shots/match
Shots on target11 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Expected goals3.23 xG/match▲1.45 xG/match
Possession56%44%
Corners6 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Orlando City SC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: FC Cincinnati's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Orlando City SC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Orlando City SC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.53 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Cincinnati show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Cincinnati's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.5 shots/match▲ShotsFC Cincinnati · Orlando City SC10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC CincinnatiOrlando City SCBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match10.8 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against16 shots/match19.1 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Orlando City SC have a visible away split

moderate

Orlando City SC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.13 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.13 shots/match10.8 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Cincinnati favored in 11 of 14 directional metrics · Orlando City SC in 0 · 3 too close

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 15/151.53 goals/match
2.47 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 15/152.93 goals/match
1.82 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/121.26 xG/match
1.7 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 13/121.94 xG/match
13.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 15/1510.8 shots/match
16 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 15/1519.1 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 15/154.4 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 15/157.27 shots/match
49.4%Possessionseason · 15/1545.1%
4.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/153.8 corners/match
4.93 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 15/157.6 corners/match
2.86 cards/matchCardsseason · 7/33 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1510.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/150%
87%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1567%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Cincinnati51.7
Orlando City SC15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Cincinnati82.2
Orlando City SC30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Cincinnati14.4
Orlando City SC1.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Cincinnati55
Orlando City SC31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Cincinnati63.3
Orlando City SC51.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 60%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Cincinnati43.3
Orlando City SC11.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Cincinnati63.3
Orlando City SC21.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52.2 goals/match
2.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/53 goals/match
1.92 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.61 xG/match
12.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/55.2 shots/match
47.6%Possession5/545.2%
2.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
—Cards1/0—
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.8 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/102.7 goals/match
2.04 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.22 xG/match
13.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.7 shots/match
5.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.7 shots/match
48.5%Possession10/1048.2%
4.1 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
3.67 cards/matchCards3/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 15 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored15/151.53 goals/match
2.47 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/152.93 goals/match
1.82 xG/match▲Expected goals13/121.26 xG/match
13.5 shots/match▲Shots15/1510.8 shots/match
5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target15/154.4 shots/match
49.4%Possession15/1545.1%
4.67 corners/matchCorners15/153.8 corners/match
2.86 cards/matchCards7/33 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 8 matches
2.86 goals/match▲Goals scored7/81.13 goals/match
2 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/83.88 goals/match
2.3 xG/match▲Expected goals6/70.96 xG/match
15.4 shots/match▲Shots7/89.13 shots/match
5.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/83.88 shots/match
51.9%Possession7/843.9%
4.86 corners/matchCorners7/84.5 corners/match
—Cards2/1—
14.1 fouls/matchFouls7/810.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 May 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFC CincinnatiOrlando City SC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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