PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 10 May 2026, 02:30 UTCFull timePayPal ParkFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSan Jose EarthquakesVancouver Whitecaps
Shots7 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.97 xG/match1.6 xG/match▲
Possession28%72%
Corners2 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: San Jose Earthquakes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: San Jose Earthquakes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

San Jose Earthquakes have a visible home split

moderate

San Jose Earthquakes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

20.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots20.2 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

San Jose Earthquakes's recent record differs from the season

weak

San Jose Earthquakes's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.25 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match2.25 goals/match1.67 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.25 corners/match▲CornersSan Jose Earthquakes · Vancouver Whitecaps5.82 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricSan Jose EarthquakesVancouver WhitecapsBaseline
Corners7.25 corners/match5.82 corners/match4.82 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1San Jose Earthquakes
0Draws
0Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps — San Jose Earthquakes · Major League Soccer0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

San Jose Earthquakes favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Vancouver Whitecaps in 9 · 5 too close

2.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/11▲2.45 goals/match
0.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/110.64 goals/match
1.94 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 9/8▲2.8 xG/match
1.02 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 9/8▲0.86 xG/match
14.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/11▲18 shots/match
10.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/11▲7.64 shots/match
5.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/11▲6.82 shots/match
3.08 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/11▲2.36 shots/match
47.6%Possessionseason · 12/1156.2%
7.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/115.82 corners/match
4.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/11▲3.36 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/32 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1116.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
42%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/11▲45%
92%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1191%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

San Jose Earthquakes40
Vancouver Whitecaps85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

San Jose Earthquakes88.3
Vancouver Whitecaps98.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

San Jose Earthquakes87.8
Vancouver Whitecaps97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

San Jose Earthquakes88.3
Vancouver Whitecaps95
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

San Jose Earthquakes26.7
Vancouver Whitecaps63.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 64%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

San Jose Earthquakes98.3
Vancouver Whitecaps75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

San Jose Earthquakes77.5
Vancouver Whitecaps92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
2.03 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.87 xG/match
15 shots/matchShots5/5▲21 shots/match
6.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7 shots/match
47.6%Possession5/554.2%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/517.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
1.94 xG/matchExpected goals9/8▲2.8 xG/match
14.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲18.5 shots/match
5.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲7 shots/match
48.1%Possession10/1055.9%
6.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match
—Cards2/2—
11.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1016.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 11 matches
2.25 goals/matchGoals scored12/11▲2.45 goals/match
0.67 goals/matchGoals allowed12/110.64 goals/match
1.94 xG/matchExpected goals9/8▲2.8 xG/match
14.6 shots/matchShots12/11▲18 shots/match
5.67 shots/matchShots on target12/11▲6.82 shots/match
47.6%Possession12/1156.2%
7.25 corners/matchCorners12/115.82 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/32 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls12/1116.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 3 matches
2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/32 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/31 goals/match
2.81 xG/matchExpected goals4/2—
20.2 shots/match▲Shots6/317 shots/match
7.83 shots/match▲Shots on target6/36.33 shots/match
48.3%Possession6/363.3%
10.2 corners/matchCorners6/34.33 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards3/1—
13 fouls/matchFouls6/315.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.4 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 May 2026, 06:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSan Jose EarthquakesVancouver Whitecaps
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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