PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 3 May 2026, 00:30 UTCFull timeSoldier FieldFull-time recap
2–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricChicago FireFC Cincinnati
Shots32 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals3.72 xG/match▲1.74 xG/match
Possession55%45%
Corners10 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match5 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Chicago Fire's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

FC Cincinnati's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Chicago Fire show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Chicago Fire's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.1 shots/match▲ShotsChicago Fire · FC Cincinnati13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricChicago FireFC CincinnatiBaseline
Shots15.1 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against11.9 shots/match16.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Chicago Fire have a visible home split

moderate

Chicago Fire's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season15.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.2 shots/match15.1 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Chicago Fire
1Draws
0FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati — Chicago Fire · Major League Soccer3–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Chicago Fire favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · FC Cincinnati in 3 · 3 too close

1.9 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/11▲2 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/112.27 goals/match
2.3 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 7/91.76 xG/match
1.46 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 7/91.66 xG/match
15.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 10/1113.6 shots/match
11.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 10/1116.5 shots/match
5.1 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/11▲5.45 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/116 shots/match
52.6%Possessionseason · 10/1149.8%
4.4 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/115.18 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/11▲4.09 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/72.86 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1111.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/1118%
90%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1182%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chicago Fire65
FC Cincinnati58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chicago Fire75
FC Cincinnati78.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chicago Fire69.5
FC Cincinnati16.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chicago Fire81.7
FC Cincinnati65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chicago Fire67.5
FC Cincinnati55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 70%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chicago Fire38.3
FC Cincinnati65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chicago Fire68.3
FC Cincinnati61.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
2.33 xG/match▲Expected goals5/52.09 xG/match
19 shots/match▲Shots5/513.4 shots/match
5.6 shots/matchShots on target5/55.6 shots/match
51.2%Possession5/548.8%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
—Cards1/2—
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.5 goals/match
2.3 xG/match▲Expected goals7/91.76 xG/match
15.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1014 shots/match
5.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.7 shots/match
52.6%Possession10/1049.4%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/63.17 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 11 matches
1.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/11▲2 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/112.27 goals/match
2.3 xG/match▲Expected goals7/91.76 xG/match
15.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1113.6 shots/match
5.1 shots/matchShots on target10/11▲5.45 shots/match
52.6%Possession10/1149.8%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/115.18 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/72.86 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1111.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
2.17 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61.83 goals/match
0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/63 goals/match
2.36 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.41 xG/match
18.2 shots/match▲Shots6/612.3 shots/match
5.83 shots/match▲Shots on target6/65.5 shots/match
53.5%Possession6/648%
5.5 corners/matchCorners6/65 corners/match
—Cards2/52.8 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls6/610.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.04 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples10 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 May 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsChicago FireFC Cincinnati
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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