PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 2 May 2026, 23:30 UTCFull timeSubaru ParkFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricPhiladelphia UnionNashville SC
Shots15 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals1.47 xG/match▲0.42 xG/match
Possession46%54%
Corners4 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nashville SC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Nashville SC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Nashville SC's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nashville SC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2.1 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nashville SC have a visible away split

moderate

Nashville SC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.83 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.83 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Nashville SC show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nashville SC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.9 shots/match▲ShotsPhiladelphia Union · Nashville SC12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPhiladelphia UnionNashville SCBaseline
Shots13.9 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against8.82 shots/match9.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Philadelphia Union favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Nashville SC in 7 · 4 too close

0.82 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/10▲2.1 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/10▲0.6 goals/match
1.22 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/71.28 xG/match
1.43 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/7▲1.06 xG/match
13.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 11/1012.1 shots/match
8.82 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 11/109.7 shots/match
3.73 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/10▲5.3 shots/match
3.55 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/10▲2.5 shots/match
48.5%Possessionseason · 11/1054.3%
6.09 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/104 corners/match
2.45 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/103.4 corners/match
3.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/31.67 cards/match
15.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1012.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/10▲50%
55%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/10▲70%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Philadelphia Union48.3
Nashville SC75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Philadelphia Union30.5
Nashville SC68.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Philadelphia Union77.8
Nashville SC91.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Philadelphia Union78.3
Nashville SC28.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Philadelphia Union96.7
Nashville SC38.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 65%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Philadelphia Union88.3
Nashville SC21.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Philadelphia Union67.5
Nashville SC49.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
1.08 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.92 xG/match
13.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match
47.6%Possession5/555.4%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
—Cards1/0—
15.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.1 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.6 goals/match
1.22 xG/matchExpected goals8/71.28 xG/match
14.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.1 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.3 shots/match
48.2%Possession10/1054.3%
6.2 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards3/31.67 cards/match
15.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 10 matches
0.82 goals/matchGoals scored11/10▲2.1 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed11/10▲0.6 goals/match
1.22 xG/matchExpected goals8/71.28 xG/match
13.9 shots/match▲Shots11/1012.1 shots/match
3.73 shots/matchShots on target11/10▲5.3 shots/match
48.5%Possession11/1054.3%
6.09 corners/matchCorners11/104 corners/match
3.5 cards/matchCards4/31.67 cards/match
15.6 fouls/matchFouls11/1012.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 6 matches
0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/6▲0.83 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/6▲0.33 goals/match
1.22 xG/match▲Expected goals3/50.89 xG/match
14.8 shots/match▲Shots5/69.83 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/6▲4 shots/match
50.4%Possession5/651.8%
7.8 corners/matchCorners5/63.5 corners/match
—Cards2/1—
13.4 fouls/matchFouls5/611.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.96 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 May 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsPhiladelphia UnionNashville SC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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