Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 2 May 2026, 23:30 UTCFull timeSports Illustrated StadiumFull-time recap
02Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNew York Red BullsFC Dallas
Shots9 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots on target0 shots/match6 shots/match
Expected goals0.61 xG/match1.81 xG/match
Possession59%41%
Corners8 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Dallas's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for FC Dallas. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

FC Dallas's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Dallas's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/matchGoals forLast 5 · Season1.82 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.82 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for FC Dallas.

7 daysRest daysNew York Red Bulls · FC Dallas6.88 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNew York Red BullsFC DallasBaseline
Rest days7 days6.88 days
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

New York Red Bulls have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.6%PossessionNew York Red Bulls · FC Dallas44.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNew York Red BullsFC DallasBaseline
Possession57.6%44.5%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

New York Red Bulls favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · FC Dallas in 7 · 4 too close

1.45 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/111.82 goals/match
2.45 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/111.36 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/81.51 xG/match
2.33 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/81.27 xG/match
14.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/1112.7 shots/match
12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/118.73 shots/match
5.18 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/114.82 shots/match
5.91 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/113.82 shots/match
57.6%Possessionseason · 11/1144.5%
6.82 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/114.55 corners/match
4.82 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/115.09 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCardsseason · 5/42 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1113.1 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
9%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/1127%
73%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1173%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

New York Red Bulls91.7
FC Dallas18.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

New York Red Bulls64.4
FC Dallas61.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

New York Red Bulls21.7
FC Dallas83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

New York Red Bulls51.7
FC Dallas75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

New York Red Bulls31.7
FC Dallas56.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 68%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

New York Red Bulls91.7
FC Dallas41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

New York Red Bulls70.8
FC Dallas59.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match
2.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
0.94 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.23 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots5/512 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/54.2 shots/match
55%Possession5/544%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
Cards0/0
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.7 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals8/81.51 xG/match
13.7 shots/matchShots10/1012.7 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/105 shots/match
58.2%Possession10/1044.5%
6.6 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/32.33 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
1.45 goals/matchGoals scored11/111.82 goals/match
2.45 goals/matchGoals allowed11/111.36 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals8/81.51 xG/match
14.5 shots/matchShots11/1112.7 shots/match
5.18 shots/matchShots on target11/114.82 shots/match
57.6%Possession11/1144.5%
6.82 corners/matchCorners11/114.55 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/42 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 4 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/41.75 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/40.75 goals/match
1.25 xG/matchExpected goals3/31.37 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots5/412.5 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/46 shots/match
58.8%Possession5/442.8%
6 corners/matchCorners5/45.25 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards3/1
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/411 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.88 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 May 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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