Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 2 May 2026, 23:30 UTCFull timeScottsMiracle-Gro FieldFull-time recap
23Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricColumbus CrewMinnesota United FC
Shots13 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match6 shots/match
Expected goals1.04 xG/match1.12 xG/match
Possession66%34%
Corners4 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Minnesota United FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Columbus Crew, Minnesota United FC. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Minnesota United FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Minnesota United FC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/matchGoals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Columbus Crew, Minnesota United FC.

7 daysRest daysColumbus Crew · Minnesota United FC7.11 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricColumbus CrewMinnesota United FCBaseline
Rest days7 days7.11 days
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Columbus Crew have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.7%PossessionColumbus Crew · Minnesota United FC43.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricColumbus CrewMinnesota United FCBaseline
Possession55.7%43.6%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Columbus Crew favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Minnesota United FC in 3 · 5 too close

1.45 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/111.27 goals/match
1.45 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/111.45 goals/match
0.98 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/81.47 xG/match
0.96 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/81.55 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/1113.2 shots/match
8.73 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/1113.6 shots/match
4.55 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/114.55 shots/match
3.73 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/114.91 shots/match
55.7%Possessionseason · 11/1143.6%
5.91 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/114.91 corners/match
4.09 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/115.55 corners/match
1.25 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/41.25 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1112.8 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/1136%
82%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1173%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Columbus Crew81.7
Minnesota United FC11.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Columbus Crew42.8
Minnesota United FC38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Columbus Crew81.7
Minnesota United FC44.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Columbus Crew18.3
Minnesota United FC85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Columbus Crew12.5
Minnesota United FC37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 68%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Columbus Crew75
Minnesota United FC55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Columbus Crew45.4
Minnesota United FC56.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.8 goals/match
1.08 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.66 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots5/515.6 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/55.6 shots/match
59.2%Possession5/545.4%
5 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
Cards1/1
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
0.98 xG/matchExpected goals8/81.47 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots10/1013.4 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target10/104.6 shots/match
55.9%Possession10/1043.7%
5.7 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards3/31.33 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 11 matches
1.45 goals/matchGoals scored11/111.27 goals/match
1.45 goals/matchGoals allowed11/111.45 goals/match
0.98 xG/matchExpected goals8/81.47 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots11/1113.2 shots/match
4.55 shots/matchShots on target11/114.55 shots/match
55.7%Possession11/1143.6%
5.91 corners/matchCorners11/114.91 corners/match
1.25 cards/matchCards4/41.25 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls11/1112.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 7 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored6/71.57 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed6/72.14 goals/match
0.93 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.31 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots6/711.3 shots/match
4.33 shots/matchShots on target6/74.57 shots/match
58.5%Possession6/742.4%
5.17 corners/matchCorners6/74.43 corners/match
Cards2/31 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls6/713.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.11 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 May 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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