Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 2 May 2026, 23:30 UTCFull timeMercedes-Benz StadiumFull-time recap

Atlanta United FC

LLLLW

3–1Full-time recap

CF Montreal

LLLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Atlanta United FC	CF Montreal
Shots	18 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match	5 shots/match
Expected goals	1.15 xG/match▲	0.86 xG/match
Possession	54%	46%
Corners	3 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	9 fouls/match
Yellow cards	3 cards/match	2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atlanta United FC's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atlanta United FC. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Atlanta United FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlanta United FC's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.4 shots/match	12.2 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atlanta United FC.

7.27 days▲Rest daysAtlanta United FC · CF Montreal7.21 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Atlanta United FC	CF Montreal	Baseline
Rest days	7.27 days	7.21 days	—
Matches last 14 days	3 matches	1 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atlanta United FC favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · CF Montreal in 4 · 6 too close

1.09 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/10▲1.4 goals/match

1.64 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/102.3 goals/match

1.3 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/71.36 xG/match

1.32 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/71.26 xG/match

12.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 11/1010.4 shots/match

11.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 11/1012.4 shots/match

4.18 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/104.1 shots/match

4.09 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 11/105.6 shots/match

53.8%Possessionseason · 11/1046.7%

4.91 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/103.5 corners/match

5.09 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/10▲4.6 corners/match

2.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/62.33 cards/match

12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1014.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

9%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/10▲20%

55%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/10▲70%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atlanta United FC71.7

CF Montreal31.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atlanta United FC26.7

CF Montreal21.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atlanta United FC63.9

CF Montreal30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atlanta United FC31.7

CF Montreal23.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atlanta United FC55.9

CF Montreal73.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 68%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atlanta United FC55

CF Montreal8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atlanta United FC43.8

CF Montreal33.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

1.22 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.35 xG/match

15.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match

51.8%Possession5/545.6%

6.6 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match

—Cards1/2—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/516.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.3 goals/match

1.3 xG/matchExpected goals8/71.36 xG/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.4 shots/match

4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/104.1 shots/match

54.6%Possession10/1046.7%

5.2 corners/matchCorners10/103.5 corners/match

2.67 cards/matchCards3/62.33 cards/match

11.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 10 matches

1.09 goals/matchGoals scored11/10▲1.4 goals/match

1.64 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/102.3 goals/match

1.3 xG/matchExpected goals8/71.36 xG/match

12.2 shots/match▲Shots11/1010.4 shots/match

4.18 shots/matchShots on target11/104.1 shots/match

53.8%Possession11/1046.7%

4.91 corners/matchCorners11/103.5 corners/match

2.5 cards/matchCards4/62.33 cards/match

12.2 fouls/matchFouls11/1014.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 7 matches

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.14 goals/match

1.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.86 goals/match

1.42 xG/match▲Expected goals6/41.19 xG/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shots7/711.6 shots/match

4.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.86 shots/match

55.4%Possession7/749.9%

4.29 corners/matchCorners7/74 corners/match

—Cards2/51.8 cards/match

11 fouls/matchFouls7/713.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.27 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.21 days

3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples11 / 10home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 May 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Atlanta United FC's recent record differs from the season

Recent scheduling adds useful context

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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