PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 9 May 2026, 20:30 UTCFull timeSaputo StadiumFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCF MontrealOrlando City SC
Shots23 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals2.15 xG/match▲0.62 xG/match
Possession53%47%
Corners11 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Orlando City SC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Orlando City SC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Orlando City SC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Orlando City SC's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Orlando City SC have a visible away split

moderate

Orlando City SC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.43 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.43 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

CF Montreal show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

CF Montreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.5 shots/match▲ShotsCF Montreal · Orlando City SC10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCF MontrealOrlando City SCBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against12 shots/match18.2 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0CF Montreal
0Draws
1Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC — CF Montreal · Major League Soccer2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

CF Montreal favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Orlando City SC in 0 · 4 too close

1.45 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/121.33 goals/match
2.09 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/122.83 goals/match
1.46 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/91.07 xG/match
1.18 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 8/91.88 xG/match
11.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 11/1210.8 shots/match
12 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 11/1218.2 shots/match
4.18 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/124.33 shots/match
5.36 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 11/127.17 shots/match
47.3%Possessionseason · 11/1244.3%
4.18 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/123.67 corners/match
4.45 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/127.33 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 6/33 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1211 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/120%
73%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1258%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

CF Montreal31.7
Orlando City SC15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

CF Montreal32.2
Orlando City SC26.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

CF Montreal36.1
Orlando City SC3.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

CF Montreal45
Orlando City SC41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

CF Montreal73.3
Orlando City SC53.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 63%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

CF Montreal28.3
Orlando City SC8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

CF Montreal44.6
Orlando City SC20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
1.56 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.07 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots5/511.4 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match
43.4%Possession5/549.2%
4 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
—Cards2/0—
14 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.8 goals/match
1.46 xG/match▲Expected goals8/91.07 xG/match
12.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.2 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match
48.9%Possession10/1044.5%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/103.7 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/1—
14 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

11 / 12 matches
1.45 goals/match▲Goals scored11/121.33 goals/match
2.09 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/122.83 goals/match
1.46 xG/match▲Expected goals8/91.07 xG/match
11.5 shots/match▲Shots11/1210.8 shots/match
4.18 shots/matchShots on target11/124.33 shots/match
47.3%Possession11/1244.3%
4.18 corners/matchCorners11/123.67 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards6/33 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls11/1211 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 7 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored4/71 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/73.57 goals/match
1.74 xG/match▲Expected goals4/60.88 xG/match
11.5 shots/match▲Shots4/78.43 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/73.71 shots/match
42.8%Possession4/743.9%
4.5 corners/matchCorners4/74 corners/match
—Cards1/1—
15.3 fouls/matchFouls4/710 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.89 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples11 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 May 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCF MontrealOrlando City SC
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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