PitchMath
Major League Soccer · 2026Sat, 9 May 2026, 23:30 UTCFull timeBank of America StadiumFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCharlotteFC Cincinnati
Shots12 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.78 xG/match▲1.46 xG/match
Possession47%53%
Corners7 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Charlotte's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

FC Cincinnati's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Cincinnati's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match2 goals/match1.67 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Charlotte have a visible home split

moderate

Charlotte's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match10.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

FC Cincinnati show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

FC Cincinnati's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.5 shots/match▲ShotsCharlotte · FC Cincinnati13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCharlotteFC CincinnatiBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match16.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Charlotte favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · FC Cincinnati in 8 · 3 too close

1.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/12▲2 goals/match
1.75 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 12/122.25 goals/match
1.51 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 9/10▲1.73 xG/match
1.34 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 9/101.67 xG/match
10.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/12▲13.6 shots/match
14.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1216.1 shots/match
4.58 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/12▲5.42 shots/match
6.08 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/12▲5.75 shots/match
47.8%Possessionseason · 12/1250.1%
4.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/125.08 corners/match
4.83 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/12▲4.33 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/72.86 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1212 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
8%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/12▲17%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/12▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Charlotte45
FC Cincinnati58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Charlotte37.2
FC Cincinnati77.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Charlotte21.1
FC Cincinnati15.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Charlotte18.3
FC Cincinnati61.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Charlotte28.4
FC Cincinnati63.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 67%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Charlotte23.3
FC Cincinnati63.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Charlotte23.8
FC Cincinnati64.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.8 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.25 xG/match
9.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.6 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
44.4%Possession5/549.2%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
—Cards0/1—
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match
1.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.6 goals/match
1.51 xG/matchExpected goals9/10▲1.73 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲14 shots/match
5.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.8 shots/match
48.8%Possession10/1049.2%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
—Cards2/53.8 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

12 / 12 matches
1.67 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲2 goals/match
1.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/122.25 goals/match
1.51 xG/matchExpected goals9/10▲1.73 xG/match
10.5 shots/matchShots12/12▲13.6 shots/match
4.58 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲5.42 shots/match
47.8%Possession12/1250.1%
4.33 corners/matchCorners12/125.08 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards4/72.86 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls12/1212 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 7 matches
2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/71.86 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/72.86 goals/match
1.81 xG/match▲Expected goals5/61.42 xG/match
13.2 shots/match▲Shots6/712.4 shots/match
6.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/75.43 shots/match
52.2%Possession6/748.7%
5.67 corners/matchCorners6/74.86 corners/match
—Cards2/52.8 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFouls6/711.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.96 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 May 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCharlotteFC Cincinnati
CompetitionMajor League Soccer
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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