Major League Soccer · 2026Sun, 15 Mar 2026, 20:30 UTCFull timeBC PlaceFull-time recap
60Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVancouver WhitecapsMinnesota United FC
Shots16 shots/match8 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match4 shots/match
Expected goals4.08 xG/match1.07 xG/match
Possession50%50%
Corners3 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls23 fouls/match22 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Minnesota United FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

16.3 fouls/matchFoulsVancouver Whitecaps · Minnesota United FC14.3 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricVancouver WhitecapsMinnesota United FCBaseline
Fouls16.3 fouls/match14.3 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Minnesota United FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Minnesota United FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.8 shots/matchShotsVancouver Whitecaps · Minnesota United FC12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVancouver WhitecapsMinnesota United FCBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against7.5 shots/match13.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Vancouver Whitecaps have recorded the higher season possession share.

56.3%PossessionVancouver Whitecaps · Minnesota United FC45%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVancouver WhitecapsMinnesota United FCBaseline
Possession56.3%45%50.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Vancouver Whitecaps favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Minnesota United FC in 0 · 14 too close

3.5 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41 goals/match
0.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/42.75 goals/match
Expected goalsseason · 1/1
Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1
14.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/412.3 shots/match
7.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/413.5 shots/match
6.25 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/44 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/46 shots/match
56.3%Possessionseason · 4/445%
5.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/45.5 corners/match
4 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/46.75 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/31.33 cards/match
16.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/414.3 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
75%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/425%
100%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/475%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Vancouver Whitecaps85
Minnesota United FC30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Vancouver Whitecaps92.8
Minnesota United FC34.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Vancouver Whitecaps93.3
Minnesota United FC22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Vancouver Whitecaps65
Minnesota United FC78.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Vancouver Whitecaps75
Minnesota United FC41
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Vancouver Whitecaps66.7
Minnesota United FC66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Vancouver Whitecaps86.2
Minnesota United FC54.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 4 matches
3.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/41 goals/match
0.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/42.75 goals/match
Expected goals1/1
14.8 shots/matchShots4/412.3 shots/match
6.25 shots/matchShots on target4/44 shots/match
56.3%Possession4/445%
5.5 corners/matchCorners4/45.5 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards3/31.33 cards/match
16.3 fouls/matchFouls4/414.3 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 4 matches
3.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/41 goals/match
0.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/42.75 goals/match
Expected goals1/1
14.8 shots/matchShots4/412.3 shots/match
6.25 shots/matchShots on target4/44 shots/match
56.3%Possession4/445%
5.5 corners/matchCorners4/45.5 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards3/31.33 cards/match
16.3 fouls/matchFouls4/414.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 4 matches
3.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/41 goals/match
0.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/42.75 goals/match
Expected goals1/1
14.8 shots/matchShots4/412.3 shots/match
6.25 shots/matchShots on target4/44 shots/match
56.3%Possession4/445%
5.5 corners/matchCorners4/45.5 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards3/31.33 cards/match
16.3 fouls/matchFouls4/414.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

3 / 3 matches
3.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/31 goals/match
0 goals/matchGoals allowed3/33.67 goals/match
Expected goals1/1
14.3 shots/matchShots3/311 shots/match
5.67 shots/matchShots on target3/33.67 shots/match
56.3%Possession3/345%
5 corners/matchCorners3/35.67 corners/match
Cards2/2
17.3 fouls/matchFouls3/316 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.71 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.79 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 16 Mar 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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